Select Page

 A palm oil industry event in Bali saw the typical bevy of widely-followed analyst comments on price and production ideas. Dorab Mistry said he expects benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures to rise to 2,700 ringgit/tonne ($647) by March 2020 from 2,461 ringgit/tonne ($590) currently as Malaysian palm oil production in the 1st half of 2020 is expected to decline 1 MMT from last year, with 2nd half production unchanged year-over-year. Additionally, he sees Indonesian palm oil production in 2020 rising only 1 MMT from this year. Oil World analyst Thomas Mielke expects 2020 Malaysian palm oil production to decline slightly from this year’s 20.5 MMT, as well, while Indonesian production rises modestly in 2020 to 45.4 MMT from 43.6 MMT this year. He sees 2019/20 global palm oil consumption at 80-81 MMT, with production at just 78.2 MMT. Analyst James Fry said he sees crude palm oil prices in Europe (Rotterdam) rising above $700/tonne in the 1st quarter of 2020, with further gains above $750/tonne in the 2nd quarter vs current prices around $660/tonne.

ï‚· The Indonesian Biofuels Producers Association expects the country to export extremely limited quantities on biodiesel in the 1st half of 2020 as Indonesia implements higher domestic biodiesel blending mandates, sharply reducing exportable supplies. Indonesia is estimated to export 500-550 million gallons of biodiesel in 2019.

 The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange further lowered their estimate of the Argentine wheat crop to 18.8 MMT from 19.8 MMT previously (21.0 MMT prior to that) and compares to USDA’s last estimate of 20.5 MMT and last year’s 19.5 MMT (USDA). The exchange put Argentine corn planting at 40% complete vs 35% last week and 36% last year. They put early corn crop conditions at 44% good/excellent, 51% fair and 6% poor vs last year’s 35% g/e, 49% fair, 16% poor and 2% very poor at this time.

ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 132k tonnes of soybeans to China for 2019/20 delivery this morning.

 The National Weather Service’s 30-day outlook for November shows below average precip expected in the country’s midsection, with average precip chances in the Dakotas, MN, WI and the northern half of IA. Below average temps are expected for November. Average precip is expected for the western halves of KS and OK, as well as all of TX, with slightly below average precip in the eastern halves of KS and OK.

 France’s corn harvest is 65% complete, up from 46% last week, while last year’s harvest was nearly complete given the drought. Soft wheat planting is 54% complete vs 29% last week and 70% last year. A notable increase in rains has slowed activity in recent weeks, but is long-term beneficial for the new winter wheat crop.

ï‚· November soybean deliveries largely recirculated today with 1,426 contracts put out (1,659 yesterday), but all were stopped by JP Morgan.

Weather Conditions look to quiet down across all of the Midwest for today, the weekend and much of next week. There are a few clipper type systems and their trailing cold front indicated to work through from time to time. The first will work through this weekend, another by Tuesday of next week and a third by the end of next week. The majority of the precip looks to fall in areas from roughly I-80 north. Totals with each of these features look to be around .20†or less, with coverage of around 50%. The precip looks to fall as light snow in most cases, with light rains on the southern fringes. Below average precip and temps are expected to be the overall pattern over at least the coming 16-day period. Rains of .50-1.5â€+ will fall across the northern Argentine growing regions from northern Entre Rios and Santa Fe into most of Corrientes in the next 5 days. Similar amounts will also fall in the southern Brazilian growing regions of RGDS, Santa Catarina and Parana in the next 5 days. Totals in the rest of the Brazilian growing regions look to be in the .40-1†range, with areas of 1â€+ and coverage of around 75%. The 6-10 day period sees rains of .30-.80â€+ to fall across around 75% of the Argentine growing regions, with rains of 1-2â€+ in most of the Brazilian growing regions.

CCSTrade
Share This