-Grain markets seek details of trade “deal”
-NOPA crush report trade estimates
-Improved South American rains in forecast
-USDA/EIA reports this week delayed 1 day
Due to today’s Columbus Day holiday, this week’s regular USDA/EIA reports will be delayed one day from their regular releases. Accordingly, Export Inspections and Crop Progress will be out tomorrow, with the weekly EIA ethanol data on Thursday and Export Sales on Friday. NOPA monthly soybean crush data is due out tomorrow.
 Grain markets could not extend further to the upside in the overnight session following Friday’s trade deal-optimism price strength. While not much in the way of concrete detail is available, or likely even known, the currently verbal-only “deal†is said to consist of the agreement for China to buy $40-$50 billion worth of ag products with really no information provided on the timing, length of time of the purchases and/or commodities involved, leaving market participants skeptical and unwilling to get more aggressive on trading the “news.†In exchange for the commodity purchase agreement, the U.S. will delay the planned increase in import tariffs this month, but no change was promised for the Dec 15 planned tariff increase at this time. Nothing was officially signed between the two sides yet for this reported “Phase 1†trade deal, but possibly may be so at a November 16 summit, but there is a lot of time between now and then. Keep in mind China imported roughly $24 billion in U.S. ag products in 2017 and around $25 billion in 2016, so $40-$50 billion in total purchases, if done over several years in a scale-up process, which some involved in trade talks/observations feel is likely, really doesn’t represent much, if any, change from past trade activity, but obviously a solid improvement from the limited exports over the last 12-15 months. Not much in the way of progress was made on any of the higher-level, more difficult trade issues at play.
 Tomorrow morning, at 11:00 AM CT, NOPA will release their monthly soybean crush report with September data. The average estimate of Sept soybean crush by NOPA members is 162.2 million bushels (155.7-166.9 million range of ideas), slightly above last year’s Sept crush of 160.8 million and would be a new record for the month. August NOPA crush was 168.1 million bushels. The average estimate of end September soybean oil stocks of NOPA members is 1.320 billion pounds (1.268-1.371 billion range of ideas), down from 1.401 billion in August and would compare to last year’s Sept stocks of 1.531 billion, but still slightly above 2017 Sept stocks of 1.302 billion pounds.
 China imported 8.20 MMT of soybeans in September, down from 9.48 MMT in August and mostly in line with last year’s August imports of 8.01 MMT. 2019 calendar year-to-date soybean imports of 64.6 MMT compare to 70.0 MMT last year through September.
ï‚· China reported its pig crop is September was 41.1% below last year vs the 38.7% year-over-year decline reported for August. The sow population was reported down 38.9% from last year in September.
 Russian corn yields are running strong relative to last year, with the average yield so far of 90.0 bushels/acre up sharply from last year’s 68.2 bu/acre at the same point. Roughly 45% of the crop has been harvested so far, with 6.3 MMT brought in vs 5.4 MMT at this time last year. USDA currently sees Russia’s corn crop at 13.5 MMT (531 million bushels), which would be the 2nd highest on record and up from last year’s 11.4 MMT (449 mil bu).
ï‚· Fears the Indian government will raise import duties or put other measures into place impacting imports have resulted in Indian vegoil refiners halting purchases of Malaysian palm oil for Nov-Dec shipment periods. Accordingly, Indian vegoil buyers are turning to Indonesian supplies as a replacement, leading to expectations of rising Malaysian palm oil stocks in the months ahead on declining exports.
ï‚· Malaysia will lower the palm oil export tax to 3% from 4.5% currently in 2020 when the reference price is between 2250-2400 ringgit/tonne ($538-$574/tonne) and will rise to 4.5% when above 2400 ringgit/tonne. Subsequent 0.5% tax increases will be made incrementally until the maximum 8% export tax rate is hit at 3,450 ringgit/tonne.
ï‚· SovEcon estimates Russian wheat exports in October will be 3.6 MMT vs 4.445 MMT last year Oct and 4.057 MMT in Sept, putting marketing year to date (JulOct) exports at 15.4 MMT vs 17.5 MMT at the same point last year.
 IKAR ticked their estimate of the Russian wheat crop higher to 75.6 MMT from 75.4 MMT previously and compares to USDA’s 72.5 MMT estimates and last year’s 71.7 MMT.
Weather After a stormy period the second half of last week in which 1-2 feet+ of snow fell across most of the Dakotas, things look to be quieter for the next 7-8 days and then a system is indicated to bring rains to the eastern Dakotas by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. Very early estimates on amounts with that system see totals of .50-1â€, isolated to 1â€+. Temps will be running below average in the next 5 days and then look to warm to average to a bit above for the weekend and first half of next week. In the corn belt, a front will bring some light rains of generally under .30†tomorrow and Wednesday. The rest of the week, the weekend and next Monday look to be dry and then by later Tuesday into Wednesday of next week, another front is indicated to bring rains of .50-1.5â€, with areas of 1â€+ also occurring to just about all of the region. Rains of .50-1.5â€+ will fall across most of the Argentine as well as into the Brazilian states of RGDS, Santa Catarina and Parana in the next 5 days. The rest of the Brazilian growing regions look to be fairly quiet. The 6-10 day period sees rains of .50-1.5â€+ to fall in most of the Brazilian growing regions, with things mainly dry in Argentina. The rains will be welcomed in all areas as their growing season gets underway.