-Late week blizzard expected across Dakotas/MN
-USDA reports soybean sales to China/unknown
-Trade estimate summary for Thursday’s USDA reports
-Brazilian soybean farmer sales slightly ahead of average
-Funds still moderately short corn, near net even soybeans
-Expected improving rains should accelerate Brazilian soybean planting
U.S./China trade talks Thursday/Friday add to the volatility risk this week, as well. A major blizzard expected late this week across the SD, the eastern ½ of ND and much of MN doesn’t seem to be all that concerning to the market given the lackluster overnight trade action.
 Soybean planting in Brazil’s largest soybean-producing state of Mato Grosso reached 7% complete, slightly behind average of 9% and moderately behind last year’s historically fast 13%. Rains are expected to improve over the next 7-10 days, which will allow for an acceleration of planting as farmers have been awaiting rains to boost soil moisture levels.
ï‚· Safras & Mercado estimates Brazilian farmers have sold nearly 26% of the expected 125.8 MMT new crop production (USDA 123.0 MMT) vs the historical average of around 23% sold at this time. At this time last year, farmers had sold 27% of the crop.
ï‚· USDA reported soybean sales of 198k tonnes to China and 240k tonnes to unknown this morning.
 The Malaysian Palm Oil Board will release their monthly report on October 10. The average estimate of end September Malaysian palm oil stocks is 2.52 MMT (2.40-2.60 MMT range of ideas) and would be up from 2.25 MMT, reflecting the first increase in seven months. Last year’s Sept stocks were nearly identical to expectations at 2.53 MMT. Sept palm oil production is estimated at 1.906 MMT (1.86-1.98 MMT range), up from 1.822 MMT in August and compares to 1.854 MMT last year. Sept palm oil exports are estimated at 1.397 MMT (1.30-1.59 MMT range) vs 1.733 MMT in August and 1.619 MMT last year.
 Russia’s Grain Union sees this year’s Russian wheat crop at 75.8 MMT and exports of at least 34.0 MMT. USDA last estimated the crop at 72.5 MMT and exports at 34.0 MMT. IKAR raised their estimate of the crop to 75.4 MMT from 75.0 MMT previously.
 Strategie Grains sees EU rapeseed planted area for next year’s 2020 at 5.94 million hectares (14.7 mil acres), rebounding from last year’s 5.55 million (13.7 mil acres), but still well below the 5-year average of roughly 6.45 mil hectares (15.9 mil acres) as farmers look to other crops following several years of poor yields/production. With average weather, they see the EU rapeseed crop recovering to 19.3 MMT vs this year’s estimated 16.9 MMT in 20.0 MMT last year.
 Friday’s long-awaited Trump Administration biofuels program proposal “announcement†offered very little detail, simply stating that rules would “ensure that more than 15 billion gallons of conventional ethanol be blended into the nation’s fuel supply beginning in 2020.†A follow-up call between the EPA and news reporters added little, simply restating previous comments that mandates will be based on a calculation of small refinery waiver gallons over the previous three years. The proposal is subject to public comment and must be finalized by November 30.
 Friday’s CFTC Disaggregated COT data for futures/options combined for the week ended 10/01/19 showed funds still net short 126k contracts in corn (net buying 34k last week), but only net short 9k contracts in soybeans (net buying 33k last week). Funds are net short 40k SBM (net buying 8.4k), 21.5k CBOT wheat (net selling 2.7k), 32.8k KCBT wheat (net buying 3.4k) and 12.4k MPLS wheat (net buying 7.1k). Funds are net long 11.5k contracts in SBO, but were net seller of 11k contracts last week.
USDA’s monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports will be out Thursday morning at 11:00 AM CT. Our pre-report comments/analysis can be found on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/37574. A summary of the average trade estimates is on the following page.
Weather An early season, major blizzard looks to bring 10-20â€+ of snow to the eastern 3/4 of ND and NW 3/4 of SD and possibly sections of NW MN later this week and weekend. Along with the snows, wind in excess of 45 mph could create lodging issues. Ahead of the snows, things look to be mild and dry. The early part of next week also looks to be dry, with below average temps. Mainly dry weather looks to dominate the majority of the corn belt for most of this week and then by Friday and Saturday, the same system that is indicated to bring a blizzard to the Dakotas will bring rains of .40-1â€, with areas of 1â€+ to most of the Midwest. Drier weather looks to build back in for the first half of next week. Temps will run above average across all of the region through Friday and then fall to below average. Temps look to drop into the 30-34 degree range in most of MN, the northern ½ of IA and NW ½ of WI by Monday morning of next week. Average precip and temps are expected for the corn belt in the 11-16 day period. Argentina and southern Brazil are expected to see minimal rains over the next 5 days, while .30-1†looks to fall across around 70% of the Brazilian growing regions from Parana north. The 6-10 day period sees rains of .50-1.5â€+ in most of the Argentine and southern Brazilian growing regions, with things mainly dry north of Parana in Brazil