-Attache sees muted Brazilian soybean area increase, but rising production
-Attache sees shifting Argentine acreage ideas from corn to soybeans
-Argentine corn planting a bit ahead of average
-Biofuels proposal details expected today
-Wild boar season opens for South Korean military in the DMZ
-No USDA sales announcements
-Widespread frost/freeze risk for Oct 11 no longer in forecast
*The USDA ag attaché in Brazil sees this year’s soybean area increasing only marginally to 36.5 million hectares (89.0 mil acres) from last year’s 36.2 mil hectares (89.5 mil acres), while USDA officially is at 37.0 mil hectares (91.4 mil acres). The attaché indicates a general reluctance by farmers to expand soybean area this year amid expectations for continued muted Chinese interest, as well as concerns of higher input costs. Despite the lack of an increase in area, the attaché sees this year’s Brazilian soybean crop rising to 123.5 MMT from 116.0 MMT last year on a return to average yields after last year’s modest yield hit, while USDA is currently at 123.0 MMT for the coming crop and 117.0 MMT for last year’s crop. The attaché is less optimistic on new crop soybean export potential, looking for 75.0 MMT in exports in the Feb 20-Jan21 period vs USDA at 77.8 MMT and this year’s estimated 68.0 MMT (USDA 69.0 MMT). Crush is estimated by the attaché to rise slightly to 44.0 MMT (USDA 43.85 MMT) from this year’s 43.1 MMT (USDA 43.25 MMT). The attaché sees Brazil’s coming marketing year soybean meal exports rising to 16.2 MMT from 15.5 MMT this year (USDA 15.2 MMT new crop, 15.2 MMT this year). The increase in crush will provided needed additional SBO supplies for the expanding biodiesel industry as the attaché sees new crop SBO domestic usage rising to 7.925 MMT from this year’s 7.600 MMT, with both estimates sharply above USDA official ideas of 7.2 MMT new crop/7.13 MMT old crop. The attaché’s solidly larger domestic usage estimate, though, prompts an expected decline in SBO ending stocks next year (Feb 20-Jan 21) to historically minimal levels. 
*The USDA ag attaché in Argentina sees shifting economic/political factors impacting farmers’ planting decisions to more favor soybeans vs previous expectations for continued corn area expansion. The attaché now expects new crop Argentine soybean area to be unchanged from last year at 18.0 mil hectares (44.5 mil acres) vs earlier expectations for a modest reduction, while the USDA’s current official estimates have new crop area at 17.5 mil hectares (43.2 mil acres), down from last year’s estimated 18.9 (46.7 mil acres). The attaché’s Argentine new crop soybean production estimate of 53.0 MMT is in line with USDA’s current official estimate, despite the modestly higher acreage expectation. For demand, the key difference is the attaché’s sharply higher old crop soybean export ideas at 10.6 MMT for the current Apr 19-Mar 20 marketing year vs USDA’s official estimate of 7.5 MMT, while both see new crop exports (Apr 20-Mar 21) at 8.0 MMT. The attaché sees this year’s crush at 42.0 MMT vs USDA at 43.1 MMT and new crop crush at 44.0 MMT vs USDA’s 45.0 MMT official estimate.
* The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimates 21% of the Argentine corn crop is planted, up from 16% last week, and is ahead of average of around 15% based on Ag Secretariat data. Last year’s crop was 22% planted according to Secretariat data. Argentina’s wheat harvest is just getting underway. The Exchange sees the coming year’s Argentine corn crop at 50.0 MMT vs last year’s 50.6 MMT, with wheat at 21.0 MMT vs 19.0 MMT last year.
* The Trump Administration is expected to announce details of the long-awaited biofuels policy revision proposal today, which will still need to go through the standard public comment period and official EPA approval by the end of November. Expectations are the proposal will largely be in line with previous wellpublicized ideas, calling for a reallocation of refinery waiver gallons, using a 3-year average waiver amount calculation being added to current compliance year obligations, along with a modest bump in the conventional and advanced biofuel blending mandates for 2020. On face value, the proposal is supportive for biofuels/feedstock demand ideas, but considerable questions remain regarding the likely actual impact on demand as the nationwide ethanol blend is already at 10%, making it very difficult/impossible to force additional ethanol gallons into gasoline supply without an increase in gasoline demand, which has not been the case in recent years, along with a more than ample existing RIN supply, which can be used for obligation requirements, as well.
* In ongoing efforts to limit the impact/spread of African swine fever, South Korea issued orders to military personnel along the DMZ to shoot any wild boars observed in the southern portion of the zone following the recent confirmation of ASF in a dead wild boar in the DMZ. It is believed the source of South Korea’s recent confirmed cases of ASF was from infected wild boars crossing from North Korea.
* French corn harvest is 6% complete vs 3% last week, but sharply below last year’s historically fast, drought-impacted pace of 42%. Winter wheat planting is just underway.
* There were no USDA sales announcements this morning.
Weather Changes have removed the chance for a freeze in most of MN, IA, WI and far northern IL Oct 11. One more rain will impact areas to the NW of a line from around Kansas City to Chicago this weekend, with amounts of .50-1â€. Totals to the south of that line look to be generally under .30†in most cases. The 6-10 day period sees dry weather for the first half of the week and then a front to roll through Thursday. That front is indicated to bring rains of .50-1.5†to most of MN, IA, MI, WI and IL, with .20-.60†in MI, IN and OH. Things then look to quiet back down after. Temps will continue to run above average in the SE Midwest, with below average readings in the NW. With the threat for freezing temps the morning of the 11th removed from the forecast, no cold air threats are seen for the region in the next 10 days. The 11-16 day period shows precip to run average to above, with temps still seen to run near average in the Plains and Midwest during the period. In South America, rains in the next 5 days will be concentrated across the Brazilian areas of RGDS, Santa Catarina and Parana. Totals of .50-1â€+ look to be common. The 6-10 day sees rains of .50-1.5†for Buenos Aries as well as Santa Fe/Entre Rios in the Argentine growing regions, with rains across the Brazilian growing regions of Minas Gerais, Goias and MGDS. Temps will be running below average in all of the Argentine and S. Brazilian growing regions in the next 10 days, with above average temps in the rest of Brazil.