-Brazilian soybean planting off to a slow start
-July biodiesel production up from last year, but a bit below USDA-implied pace
-Ukraine wheat exports off to a strong start
-No widespread frost/freeze in forecast, but outlook remains wet
-No USDA sales announcements as markets await Chinese soybean buying confirmation
Corn took a bit of a breather overnight following yesterday’s solid gains, while soybeans headed into the break with minor gains. CBOT and KCBT wheat were modestly lower overnight, while MPLS saw small gains. Yesterday’s Grain Stocks report was a game-changer for corn as 2019/20 U.S. beginning stocks are much lower than previously anticipated and puts added premium on yields needing to not fall of notably from the USDA’s current projection. The soybean balance sheet remains more than ample in historic terms, but a considerable improvement from last year is underway. Wheat remains mired by lackluster demand. Our analysis of yesterday’s USDA reports can be found at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/37511/
 Early Brazilian soybean planting remains on the slow side with just 1% of the nationwide crop planted vs 5% at this time last year and 2% average. While the nationwide numbers are just getting underway and appear uneventful, planting in Parana is just 4% complete vs 9% average and last year’s historically fast 21%. Farmers are awaiting the seasonal improvement in soil moisture/rains as rather dry conditions have existed heading into this year’s growing season. Mato Grosso is 1% planted vs 3% average and 5% last year.
 EIA reported July U.S. biodiesel production was 159 million gallons vs 142 million in June and 163 million gallons last year. A total of 709 million pounds of soybean oil was used for biodiesel production in July vs 594 million gallons in June and 671 million gallons last year July, putting 2018/19 marketing year to date (Oct-July) usage at 6.564 billion pounds vs 5.740 billion a year ago, up 14.4%. Based on the USDA’s 2018/19 annual estimate of 8.100 billion pounds of soybean oil for biodiesel production, Aug-Sept would need to total 1.536 billion pounds, reflecting a 10.2% increase from last year. While marketing year to date data appears to validate the USDA’s current projection, June and July data were below the “needed†10% gain as July was up 5% and June was actually down 5% from year ago levels.
 Ukrainian wheat exports continue to run at an impressively strong pace, with July-Sept marketing year-to-date total exports of 8.63 MMT up sharply from last year’s 5.37 MMT during the same period.
ï‚· There were no USDA sales announcements this morning, but some may show up over the next day or so as traders believe around 600k tonnes was booked by China yesterday.
 After running behind last year’s pace in early activity, Ukraine’s winter wheat planting has made gains to catch up over the last few weeks with 3.23 million hectares (8.0 mil acres) now planted vs roughly 3.6 mil hectares (8.9 mil acres) as this time last year.
ï‚· U.S. corn harvest is 11% complete (14% expected) vs 19% average and 25% last year, with nationwide maturity at 43% vs 73% avg. MN is 22% mature vs 67% avg, WI 16% vs 54% avg, ND 15% vs 57% avg and SD 29% vs 64% avg. Crop conditions were unchanged last week with IL and NE up 2%, MO up 3%, WI up 6%, while MN and SD were down 2% and IA, SD and IN unchanged.
ï‚· U.S. soybean harvest is 7% complete (6% expected) vs 20% avg and 22% last year. Crop conditions improved 1% g/e last week vs unchanged expectations with IL, IA, MN, ND, NE and OH all up 1% and WI up 3%. The crop is 55% dropping leaves vs 76% avg, with ND 86% vs 93% avg, MN 60% vs 85% avg, WI 42% vs 72% avg and SD 58% vs 89% avg.
ï‚· Spring wheat harvest is 90% complete vs 99% average. Winter wheat planting is 39% complete (36% expected) vs 38% avg and 41% last year.
 Full details of yesterday’s Crop Progress update can be found at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/37510.
 October SBM deliveries were 146 contracts, down from yesterday’s first notice day issues of 502, while SBO deliveries rose to 293 contracts from yesterday’s 50.
Weather The threat for temps in the low to mid 30s the morning of the 3rd remains good for ND, with MN to see mainly low 40s. Rains look to fall off and on across the NW ½ to 2/3rd of the Midwest this week, with totals of 1-2†common north of a line from around Kansas City to Toledo. Totals to the south of that line look to be generally under .30†in most cases. The 6-10 day period sees rains to be confined to the OH River Valley, with limited activity elsewhere. Temps will run above average across the southeast ½ of the region for most of the next 5-6 days, with below average readings in the NW. There remains a good chance for temps to drop into the 32-38 degree range in most of ND, with 40-44 degree temps in mot of MN on the morning of the 3rd. No other cold air threats are seen for the region in the next 10 days. Below average precip and average temps are shown for the 11-16 day period