-Rains just keep coming…
-Trump administration indicates additional farmer aid may be in play
-HRW wheat conditions improve again – historically high
-SRW conditions continue to struggle
-Wheat tour underway
-First notice day May deliveries
Rain, rain and more rain. While “there is still plenty of time†to get the crop in, with a very wet 14 days ahead, talk of potential acreage switches/Prevent Planting is bound to increase rapidly as the calendar advances in May.
 For full details of yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report, see our post on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/35761. Corn planting was 15% complete as of Sunday (14% expected) and compared to 27% average and 15% last year. IA made good progress at 21% vs 4% last week and 26% avg, but IL is just 9% vs 43% avg and MN 2% vs 24% avg. The delays will continue to build as the active rain pattern continues. Soybean planting was 3% complete vs 4% expected and 6% avg. Spring wheat planting was 13% complete vs 12% expected and 33% avg, with ND just 5% vs 21% avg and SD 8% vs 60% avg.
 Winter wheat conditions improved again, rising another 2% g/e to 64% vs unchanged expectations and last year’s 33% g/e. All the increase was due to HRW, as SRW declined modestly and white wheat conditions were unchanged. HRW conditions are the 2nd best for late April of the last 20 years, while SRW conditions are the 2nd worst for the last 20 years. White wheat conditions are slightly above average.
ï‚· With the Wheat Quality Council tour getting underway in earnest today, tweets will be watched for confirmation of high yield expectations across the Southern Plains: https://twitter.com/hashtag/wheattour19
ï‚· White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow said the Trump administration is ready to offer more financial aid to farmers if necessary, on top of the $12 billion already approved to help offset revenue losses from the impact of the U.S./Chinese trade war. The comment spurred ideas a trade deal between the U.S. and China may not be as close as most imagined/hoped. Top level U.S. trade negotiators are in Beijing this week for the next round of talks.
ï‚· First notice day May deliveries saw 1,016 contracts of CBOT wheat put out and are current with a last trade date of 4/29/19. Nearly all (1,000 contracts) were put out by Andersons. May corn saw 856 contracts put out (last trade date 4/27/19) with 779 issued by Cargill and 77 by ADM. Soybeans saw 453 contracts put out (LTD 4/17/19), with 381 by ABM AMRO (COFCO), while SBO saw 703 contracts delivered (LTD 4/26/19) and SBM 300 contracts (LTD 4/12/19). Oat deliveries were 130 contracts and were through 3/27/19. MPLS wheat saw 924 contracts put out, all by CHS, while there were no KCBT wheat deliveries.
ï‚· Malaysian palm oil/product exports in April were 1.585 MMT, essentially unchanged from 1.578 MMT in March and compared to 1.332 MMT last year April. Weather A system will move through the corn belt today and tomorrow and bring totals of 1-2â€, with coverage of around 85-95% to all of the region. Another on Thursday looks to impact areas generally south of a line from Omaha to Milwaukee to the thumb of MI with totals of .30-.80â€, isolated 1â€+. Most of Friday and Saturday look to be dry and then Sunday, rains of generally less than .30†look to fall with coverage of around 85%. By later Monday and into Tuesday rains of .25-.75†are indicated for the northern 2/3rd of the Midwest and now another system is seen to bring fairly soaking totals to most areas Thursday and Friday of next week. In the Northern Plains, .20-.60†is expected in parts of the Dakotas today/tomorrow with Thur-Sun mostly dry. Early next week, .30-.80†with 75% coverage is expected. Southern Plains weather remains favorable.
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