-Corn, wheat, soybean sales all below expectations – soybeans signficantly
-SBM/SBO sales decent
U.S. soybean sales, for the week ended 4/04/19, were just 270k tonnes (9.9 million bushels), sharply below market expectations of 800k-1.150 MMT and compared to last year’s very strong same-week sales of 53.6 million bushels. The largest sales of the week were 108k tonnes to Mexico, followed by the Netherlands with 66k tonnes. This week’s sales were down sharply, obviously, from last week’s 72.4 million bushels, which included the latest round of Chinese buying, but the prior week’s sales were just 6.8 million bushels and just 13.9 million the week before that reflecting the significant slowdown in activity when China is absent from the market. In fact, in the last four weeks in which China was not a buyer, soybean sales averaged just 10.5 million bushels, while they still need to average roughly 13 million bushels/week in order to reach the USDA’s projection. Another week with notable Chinese purchases should seal the deal on the USDA’s projection, but that is not a certainty in our opinion as any purchases down the road may end up being for new crop, not 2018/19 shipment. Total commitments of 1.613 billion bushels are down 17% from last year’s 1.945 billion, while the USDA is expecting exports down only 12% on the year, indicating sales need to run stronger than year ago levels if their projection is to be reached.
U.S. corn sales last week of 548k tonnes (21.6 million bushels) were below market expectations of 600-950k tonnes, were nearly unchanged from the previous week’s 21.2 million bushels and were below last year’s same-week sales of 33.1 million bushels. Moreover, sales were below the roughly 23.2 million bushels/week in which we estimate they will need to average in order to reach the USDA’s just-lowered 2.300 billion bushel export projection, the 3rd time of the last five weeks in which sales did not meet the “needed” pace. Total commitments of 1.722 billion bushels are down more than 9% from last year’s 1.897 billion, while the USDA is estimating 2018/19 exports to be down just 5.7% on the year.
Old crop wheat sales were 273k tonnes (10.0 million bushels), below expectations of 300-500k tonnes and down from the previous week’s 26.0 million bushels, but above last year’s same week sales of 4.4 million bushels. Based on the difference between Census export data and that reported in Export Sales, while also taking into account flour/product exports and donations, the level of sales on the books is nearly large enough to allow the USDA’s 945 million bushel export projection to be met, as sales would only need to average 1-2 million bushels/week through the end of May, but the actual shipment pace continues to lag notably, resulting in the USDA’s recent downward adjustment in their export program. Total commitments of 804 million bushels are up nearly 7% from last year’s 847 million bushels vs the USDA estimating a 4.5% increase in exports this year. New crop sales this week were 201k tonnes (7.4 million bushels) vs market expectations of 0-200k and brought 2019/20 total commitments to 51.2 million bushels, modestly above last year’s historically low new crop sales at this time of 42.1 million bushels.
U.S. soybean meal sales of 152k tonnes were in line with expectations of 100-300k tonnes and compared to the previous week’s 190k and last year’s same-week sales of 317k tonnes, but still easily met the roughly 105k tonnes/week they need to average in order to reach the USDA’s export program. While sales have notably varied from week to week of late, they have averaged 131k tonnes/week over the last four weeks, supporting the USDA’s current export projection. Total commitments of 9.473 MMT are now essentially unchanged from last year, on their way towards the USDA’s expected 7% decline in exports on the year. Soybean oil sales of 33.8k tonnes slightly beat market expectations of 8-30k tonnes and were similar to the previous week’s 36.7k tonnes, while beating last year’s same-week sales of 22.0k. SBO sales need to average roughly 12k tonnes/week through the end of September to reach the USDA’s export projection vs last year’s average sales from this point forward of 14.7k tonnes/week. Total commitments are down 13.5% from last year, while the USDA is estimating SBO exports down 8.1% this year.
