#Grain #Futures Comments

-Trade estimates for Friday USDA reports
-HRW conditions improve, SRW decline in latest update
-China bans another Canadian canola exporter
-Egypt tenders for wheat – US SRW lowest exclusive of freight
-More snow on tap for northern plains

 

*On Friday, USDA will release the Prospective Plantings report and quarterly Grain Stocks report at 11:00 AM. The average trade estimate of 2019 U.S. corn planted area is 91.332 million acres (89.5-92.7 mil range) vs last year’s 89.129 million and the USDA’s February Ag Outlook conference assumption of 92.0 million. Soybean area is estimated at 86.169 million acres (84.3-88.0 mil range) vs 89.196 million last year and USDA’s 85.0 million in Feb. Other spring wheat area is estimated at 13.419 mil acres (12.6-13.9 mil range) vs 13.2 million last year, durum 2.081 mil vs 2.065 mil last year and all winter wheat at 31.460 million (31.0-32.5 mil range) vs USDA January Winter Wheat Seedings report estimate of 31.290 million and last year’s 32.535 million. All wheat area is estimated at 46.915 million (45.9-48.0 mil range) vs 47.8 million last year and USDA Feb of 47.0 million. Cotton planted area is estimated at 14.498 million acres (14.1-15.4 mil range) vs 14.099 million last year and USDA Feb of 14.3 million.

* The average trade estimate of March 1 U.S. corn stocks is 8.335 billion bushels (7.620-8.800 bil range) vs last year’s 8.892 billion, while March 1 soybean stocks are estimated at 2.683 billion (2.095-2.797 bil range) vs 2.109 billion last year and March 1 wheat stocks at 1.555 billion (1.435-1.617 bil range) vs 1.495 billion last year.

* Kansas winter wheat conditions were reported at 52% good/excellent (11% poor/very poor) as of Sunday vs 49% g/e, 11% p/vp the week prior. OK conditions improved substantially last week and are now at 74% g/e and just 2% poor vs 60% g/e and 5% the week prior, while TX conditions also improved notably to 39% g/e and 22% p/vp vs 23% g/e and 33% p/vp a week ago. NE wheat is rated 61% g/e and 5% p/vp vs 60% g/e and 3% p/vp at the end of February. AR winter wheat (SRW) is rated just 32% g/e and 34% p/vp vs 28% g/e and 30% p/vp a week earlier, while KY SRW is rated 53% g/e and 15% p/vp vs 62% g/e and 12% p/vp at the end of February. IL SRW is rated 41% g/e and 14% p/vp vs 46% g/e and 13% p/vp at the end of February. Overall, HRW conditions are well above those of last year heading into the to spring growing season, while SRW are well below those of a year ago at this time given the excessive moisture across the mid-South and Delta. USDA will issue their first U.S.-wide winter wheat crop condition update of the year next Monday afternoon.

* China escalated the ongoing trade issues with Canada as they cancelled the canola export registration of Viterra following the banning of Richardson International’s ability to export canola to China earlier in the month.

* After the close yesterday, Egypt tendered for an unspecified amount of wheat for April 25-May 5 shipment. US SRW was the lowest on an fob basis at $221.00/tonne, with the next lowest being French wheat at $234.74/tonne. The lowest Russian offer was $237.50, with Ukrainian at $238.00/tonne. Freight-inclusive offers were not yet available.

* The Brazilian soybean harvest is now 68% complete vs 62% the week prior and compares to 65% last year and 64% average.

* South Africa estimated this year’s corn crop at 10.561 MMT, slightly above the average trade estimate of 10.482 MMT and up marginally from their estimate last month of 10.510 MMT. Production is expected to be down solidly from last year’s 12.510 MMT, though, due to dryness.

* Ethiopia issued a tender to buy 600k tonnes of milling wheat with offers due by April 30. They currently have an open tender for 400k tonnes of wheat, as well, with offers due by April 19. Ethiopia last bought wheat in February of around 400k tonnes.

* COFCO Meat Holdings reported a net loss in 2018 of around $94 million vs a net profit in 2017 of around $64 million as a result of the negative price impact on hogs given the African swine fever epidemic.