-Soybeans rally on Chinese tariff innuendo
-Argentine soybean area estimate modestly lowered
-Russia aims to regulate domestic grain prices
-Indonesian palm oil stocks decline for 3rd consecutive month
-Grain markets closed Monday
 The soybean market rallied strongly yesterday, pulling corn and wheat along, following the Wall Street Journal reporting Treasury Secretary Mnuchin was considering rolling back some or all tariffs against China ahead of the January 30-31 talks. However, USTR Lighthizer is reportedly resisting the idea. Additionally, Mnuchin said trade talks/negotiations with China are “nowhere near completion.†Any move on tariffs would need to come from President Trump, who some say has waffled on the idea of a tariff cut as he increasingly wants to get a trade deal done with China, but at what cost? Any move on tariffs would be a good will gesture with the intent of striking a deal in the talks at the end of the month, but past comments by administration officials have indicated the desire for tariffs will remain in place until China makes irreversible moves on U.S. demands.
 The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange modestly lowered their estimate of Argentina’s planted soybean area this year to 17.7 million hectares (43.7 million acres) from 17.9 million hectares (44.3 million acres) previously due to the consistent heavy rains across northern growing areas. The Exchange also raised their estimate of the Argentine wheat crop to 19 MMT from 18 MMT previously. USDA last estimated this year’s crop at 19.5 MMT, while last year’s was 18.5 MMT.
 A survey of Indonesian palm oil participants/associations estimated the country produced 3.9 MMT of palm oil in December vs 3.979 MMT in November and 3.519 MMT last year December, while stocks were seen declining to 3.434 MMT in Dec from 3.900 MMT in Nov and only modestly above last year’s Dec stocks of 3.200 MMT. Indonesian palm oil stocks have declined for three consecutive months and in fairly notable fashion from the 2018 peak of 4.800 MMT in September. Indonesian palm oil exports in Dec were estimated at 2.9 MMT vs 3.0 MMT in Nov and 2.512 MMT last year Dec.
ï‚· Without providing any specifics or timelines, Russia’s Ag Minister said they plan to regulate domestic grain prices in order to maintain stability in the domestic market, with many feeling it would likely involve export controls. He said based on current market dynamics, he does not expect domestic prices to rise “in the medium term.â€
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