-Corn sales modest – new crop sales lower than expected
-Soybean sales modest – new crop sales at lower end of expectations
-Wheat sales respectable – as expected
-New crop SBM sales strong – old crop small net cancellations/SBO sales decent
With only one full week remaining in the 2017/18 corn marketing year, old crop sales were light, as would be expected, at 176k tonnes (6.9 million bushels), in line with market expectations of 100-300k tonnes and put total commitments at 2.383 billion bushels vs last year’s 2.235 billion last year. Sales at that level easily will allow the USDA’s 2.400 billion bushel export projection to be met when taking into consideration the difference between official Census Bureau export data and that of the Export Sales reports, so it will simply come down to what is actually shipped in the final weeks of the year, as opposed to sales on the books. Interestingly, though, there are still 179 million bushels in old crop unshipped sales on the books vs just 81 million at this time last year. New crop sales were disappointing at 525k tonnes (20.7 million bushels), coming in below market expectations of 600k-1.0 MMT, but total purchases for 2018/19 of 411 million bushels are well above new crop sales at this time last yer of 274 million.
Old crop soybean sales were minimal, with only 1 week remaining in the 2017/18 marketing year, at 111k tonnes (4.1 million bushels), which were in line with market expectations of 0-250k tonnes. This put total commitments at 2.163 billion bushels vs 2.236 billion at this time last year and should allow for old crop exports to reach the USDA’s 2.110 billion bushel export projection when the difference with Census Bureau data is taken into account. As with corn, it simply comes down to what is loaded for export in the last week of the year as to exports proving slightly above or below the USDA’s projection. New crop sales of 592k tonnes (21.7 million bushels) were at the lower end of market expectations of 500k-1.0 MMT and brought 2018/19 total commitments to 486 million bushels vs new crop sales at this time last year of 423 million. Sales to unknown accounted for 360k tonnes of the new crop sales.
Wheat sales last week of 415k tonnes (15.2 million bushels) were within market expectations of 200-500k tonnes, but would hardly be considered encouraging. While they did rebound from the previous week’s poor sales of just 8.8 million bushels, they were right in line with average sales over the last five weeks. Unfortunately, wheat sales remain quite tepid with 2018/19 total commitments of 330 million bushels still down a significant 26% from last year’s 444 million at this time and will require sales to average roughly 17.4 million bushels/week over the next 40 weeks in order for the USDA’s 1.025 billion bushel export projection to be met. Average sales at that level would represent a massive 63% increase from last year’s 10.7 million/week average from this point forward, reflecting the significant task at hand if the USDA’s projection is to be met.
Old crop soybean meal sales were net cancellations of -22k tonnes (50-350k tonnes expected), but as sales during the previous three weeks totaled more than 500k tonnes and sales on the books already essentially will allow the USDA’s export projection to be met, the slip this week is of little concern. New crop sales were strong, though, at 500k tonnes (200-400k expected) and brought 2018/19 total commitments to 1.456 MMT vs 1.852 MMT at this time last year. New crop sales were led by those to unknown of 280k tonnes. Old crop soybean oil sales were solid at 24.0k tonnes (0-15k expected) and notably helped to solidify the likelihood of the USDA’s 2.450 billion pound export projection being met as only minimal sales should now be needed over the final 5 weeks of 2017/18 in order for that to occur.
