-OI data continues to show new buying interest in soybeans/SBO – short-covering in corn
-USDA attache sees South African corn area/planting expanding significantly in 2016/17
-China delays new canola import quality standards
-Trade estimate summary for USDA March 31 grain reports
USDA will release the quarterly Grain Stocks report and Prospe
ctive Plantings report tomorrow at 11:00 AM CT.
. EIA petroleum and ethanol data will be out later this morning.
API data yesterday showed crude oil stocks up another 2.6 million barrels.
The USDA ag attaché in South Africa sees their corn crop
this year at 7.0 MMT vs USDAlast at 6.5 MMT and obviously
down sharply from last year’s 10.6 MMT following this year’s istoric drought.
Imports are expected to be 3.5 MMT, in line
with the USDA’s last estimate. South Africa is set to release
an official crop estimate update today. The attaché expects a
notable increase in South African corn planted area and
production in 2016/17, in reaction to this year’s crop
disaster/record high prices, with area expected to increase
44% and production jumping to 12.6 MMT, an 80% increase
from this year’s 7.0 MMT.
The USDA ag attaché in Algeria sees their 2016/17 wheat imports
declining solidly following thisyear’s increased imports,
as they took advantage of weak global prices, and as a result of new import
policies which will make the process a bit more
controlled/cumbersome than in the past. The attaché sees Algeria’s wheat
imports declining to 7.0 MMT from 8.2 MMT in2015/16 and would be the
lowest since 2012/13. Nearly all Algerianwheat imports come from the EU,
so this would allowfor greater export availability of EU
wheat to other markets next year.
CBOT open interest data for yesterday continued to show the solid price
performance in soybeans is coming on new buying
as OI was up another 10k contracts. Sincesoybeans started to move
higher on March 4, total OI is up61k contracts. SBO
OI has also risen notably since early March (+66k contracts) on
the roughly 3.5 cent rally in prices. The opposite has been
the case in corn where the roughly 20 cents/bushel price gain
since early March has come on an OI decline of around 25k
contracts. CBOT wheat OI has beenmostly unchanged since early March.
China has delayed the implementation of new quality standard
s of imported Canadian canola to September 1 from the
originally planned start date of April 1. China will allow no more
than 1% foreign matter beginning Sept 1 from the current
2.5% allowance as they cite a higher risk of fungal disease
getting into Chinese crops with the 2.5% allowance. The delay
in the new standard’s implementation should allow time for
previously-booked sales to be shipped without issue, which was
previously a concern with the April 1 effective date.