S American Crop Roundup Highlights:
Brazil
*Estimate soy crop at 122-123 mmt vs. USDA’s 127 mmt forecast (crop 70% cut)
*Northern bean yields exceed expectations while southern yields disappointing
*55% of ‘22 farmer soy sold vs. 66% LY & 74% prior year (in part + 10% YTD Real)
*51% of 2022 safrina corn sold vs. 55% LY.
*Soy harvest nearly complete in 3 weeks: farmer tight holder with low RGDS yields
*Soy crush margins attractive thru May before trailing off June forward
*US corn cheapest thru May: corn export & domestic markets quiet/slow
*Internal freight soars (M.G. to Santos up $35/ton to $90/ton); who will pay?
*Safrina corn off to great start—April rains critical for pollination
Argentina
*Estimate soy crop at 42 mmt ( USDA @ 43.5 mmt) & corn at 52 mmt (USDA @ 53 mmt)
*Recent rains stabilized crop rather than boosting yields
*30% of soy D-Cropped vs. corn which is 70% late planted
*Early yields on 7% of corn harvested disappointing
*Equalizing meal & oil export tax with soy at 33% may hurt soy product exports
*Trade reluctant to up CN/BN production estimates until more in known on N/C yields
