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-Grain markets remain focused on Russian conflict/South American weather into long weekend
-USDA reports more soybean sales to unknown, mostly new crop
-French wheat in very good condition
-Argentine corn/soybean conditions decline further

The story remains the same heading into the 3-day weekend for the grain markets, with Russian/Ukrainian tensions high and an uber focus on next week’s forecasted rains across much of Argentina and southern Brazil. U.S. grain markets are closed on Monday for the Presidents’ Day holiday.
 A wire service poll of Brazilian grain industry participants reflected average expectations for this year’s total corn crop at 113.1 MMT (106.8-116.8 MMT range of ideas), which would still easily be a new record in exceeding 2019/20’s 102.0 MMT and up sharply from last year’s 87.0 MMT, given maintained favorable expectations for the safrinha crop, which is currently being planted and accounts for around 75% of total production. USDA’s estimate is currently 114.0 MMT.
ï‚· The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange put the Argentine corn crop at 19% good/excellent and 26% poor/very poor vs 28% g/e and 25% p/vp a week earlier, with soybeans 31% g/e and 23% p/vp vs 7% g/e and 17% p/vp a week earlier. The exchange is optimistic about improved rain chances next week, which are deemed as critical in maintaining current conditions and crop prospects.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 198k tonnes of soybeans to unknown this morning, with 66k being old crop and 132k tonnes new crop.
ï‚· With a favorable temperature and precip regime over the winter months, in the first update of the spring, France estimates 95% of the soft wheat crop is in good/excellent condition vs 86% last year, maintaining the very good conditions prior to the set-in of winter of 99% g/e. Winter barley conditions are also very strong at 94% g/e, while early spring barley planting activity has been strong with 27% complete vs 16% last year.
 The CEO of fertilizer giant Nutrien said they see 2022/23 U.S. corn planted acreage at 91-93 million acres vs last year’s 93.4 million and soybean acreage at 87-89 million acres vs 87.2 million last year.
 Algeria’s total wheat purchases following their recent tender are now believed to have been around 700k tonnes, with the majority still thought likely to be Black Sea origin, while French supplies being included are seen as unlikely. All was for April shipment, with prices paid believed to be in the $345.50-$347.00/tonne c&f range.
 As a result of Egypt’s latest tender, they ended up buying 180k tonnes of wheat, all Romanian, at $338.55/tonne c&f ($318 fob) for April 1-15 shipment.
ï‚· Iran is believed to have bought 120k tonnes of corn, 180k tonnes of soybean meal and 120k tonnes of barley as a result of their recent tender. Initial tender amounts were for 60k tonnes of each, with shipment periods of Feb-Mar.
ï‚· Argentina raised their benchmark interest rate by another 250k basis points Thursday to 42.5%, and followed a 200bp increase in January, as they continue to grapple with inflation running above 50% on an annual basis.

CCSTrade
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