-Corn sales within expectations
-Soybean sales solid again for old/new crop
-Wheat sales remain very weak – at bottom of expectations
-SBM/SBO sales as expected
U.S. corn sales, for the week ended 2/10/22, were 820k tonnes (32.3 million bushels), within market expectations of 500k-1.0 MMT, up from the previous week’s 4-week low 23.3 mil bu but a bit below last year’s same-week sales of 39.4 million bushels. Once again, there was no meaningful activity by China for the week while they still have 8.0 MMT of unshipped old crop U.S. corn purchases on the books vs 11.1 MMT at this time last year, which was during a period of strong buying a year ago. Total commitments of 1.832 billion bushels are down nearly 21% from last year’s 2.305 billion. We estimate corn sales will need to average nearly 20 million bushels/week through the end of August in order to reach the USDA’s 2.425 billion bushel export projection vs last year’s 16.1 million/week average from this point forward. New crop sales were 114k tonnes (4.5 mil bu), within expectations of 0-250k tonnes, bringing total sales for 22/23 so far to 62 million bushels vs new crop sales a year ago of 43 million bushels.
U.S. soybean sales last week of 1.362 MMT (50.0 mil bu) were within market expectations of 750k-1.8 MMT, but rather strong for this time of the year as the atypically solid sales pace continues. Year ago sales this week were 16.7 million bushels, while soybean sales have average a very impressive 46.1 million bushels/week over the last four weeks vs 21.6 million/week during the same period last year. The largest sales of the week went to unknown at around 590k tonnes, while the largest reported sales were to China with 227k tonnes, followed by the Netherlands with 75k tonnes and Spain with 70k tonnes. China now officially has only 1.8 MMT of unshipped old crop purchases on the books vs 1.9 MMT at this time last year. There has clearly been an acceleration in old crop soybean sales of late given the South American concerns, which has led the average weekly “needed” sales pace to reach the USDA’s export projection of 2.050 billion bushels to fall to only 10 million bushels/week, a below average level of sales from this point forward. Year ago sales through the end of August were a historically low 3.4 mil bu/week. New crop sales of 1.526 MMT (56.1 mil bu) were at the very top of market expectations of 800k-1.5 MMT and brought 22/23 total sales so far to 165 mil bu, right in line with last year’s new crop sales at this point of 169 mil bu. China bought 876k tonnes of new crop soybeans for the week with unknown sales of 530k tonnes, as well. China now has 2.58 MMT of new crop soybeans on the books vs 2.01 MMT at this time last year.
U.S. wheat sales were weak and disappointing again at only 114k tonnes (4.3 mil bu), at the bottom of market expectations of 75-500k tonnes and continuing the streak of very poor sales of late, now having averaged a mere 3.2 million bushels/week over the last three weeks vs 20.0 million/week average during the same period last year. Accordingly, total commitments of 642 million bushels fell to another marketing year high deficit to last year’s 860 million of 25.4%, while the USDA’s 810 million bushel export projection reflects an estimated 18% decline from last year. We estimate wheat sales will need to average roughly 5.2 million bushels/week through the end of May to reach the USDA’s projection vs last year’s 5.5 million/week average from this point forward. New crop sales were minimal, as well, at 11k tonnes bringing total sales for 22/23 to 14 million bushels vs 30 million in new crop sales at this time last year.
U.S. soybean meal sales were solid at 279k tonnes, within expectations of 150-500k tonnes, and comparable to the previous week’s 241k tonnes and last year’s 322k, with sales over the last five weeks averaging a very respectable 354k tonnes/week vs 300k/week during the same period last year. Total commitments are up 3% from last year vs USDA looking for a 4.6% increase, with sales needing to average around 140k tonnes/week from this point forward, comparable to last year’s sales pace through the end of September. Soybean oil sales of 35.4k tonnes were within expectations of 0-60k and were the best in 8 weeks after several weeks of very limited activity. Nearly all of the week’s sales (30k tonnes) were reported to unknown. Total commitments are now down only 11% from last year vs USDA estimating exports to decline 17% on the year.
