-Russia/Ukraine de-escalation optimism hits grain markets overnight
-NOPA crush report at 11:00 AM CT
-Attache lowers Brazil soybean crop ideas but remains well above private ideas
-Russian new crop wheat production ideas raised to near record
-Another bird flu finding in large U.S. chicken operation
-Morocco facing another historic drought
-USDA reports routine soybean sales to Mexico
Wheat was sharply lower overnight following comments by Russia that some of its troops will be returning to bases following exercises near the Ukrainian border. While NATO officials have said there is no confirmation yet this has/will occurred, rhetoric appears to have toned down, while Russian officials have said dialogue with the West remains open. Corn and the oilseed complex followed suit, as well.
 The USDA ag attaché in Brazil lowered their estimate of the soybean crop to 134.5 MMT from 136.0 MMT previously, putting their estimate in line with the USDA’s latest official estimate of 134.0 MMT and compares to last year’s 138.0 MMT. The attaché said their revised estimate assumes “normal†weather conditions the rest of the growing season, which is certainly a questionable assumption and implies further reductions are likely if conditions in the south remain dry. Based on their current crop assumption, they see this year’s soybean exports at 86.7 MMT vs USDA last at 84.5 MMT and last year’s 88.9 MMT, with crush at 46.6 MMT vs USDA’s officially 46.9 MMT estimate and last year’s 47.2 MMT. Many private estimates in Brazil have moved this year’s crop ideas below 130 MMT, with some as low as 125 MMT. The attaché looks for a solid new crop soybean meal export program despite the crop issues, estimating exports at 17.5 MMT vs USDA’s 16.6 MMT estimate and old crop exports of 17.7 MMT, while they see soybean oil exports at 1.65 MMT vs USDA’s 1.53 MMT estimate and last year’s 1.80 MMT.
 Citing favorable winter weather conditions deemed “almost ideal,†Sovecon solidly raised their estimate of Russia’s new crop (22/23) wheat crop to 84.8 MMT from 81.2 MMT previously, reflecting expectations for a solid rebound from this year’s 76.0 MMT and falling only slightly short of the 2020/21 record of 85.9 MMT.
ï‚· Another outbreak of the highly pathogenic H5N1 bird flu was found in a commercial poultry operation in Kentucky, with a chicken flock of 240k testing positive. Migratory wild birds are responsible for the recent cases in Indiana and Kentucky.
 Brazilian ag exporter association Anec ticked their estimate of February soybean exports down to 7.1 MMT from 7.5 MMT previously, but would still easily be a new record for the month in beating 2019’s 5.27 MMT and compares to last year’s 2.66 MMT, while estimated corn exports for the month were lowered to 350k tonnes from 521k previously and compares to 775k tonnes last year as Brazilian corn exports are typically minimal during Feb-June.
ï‚· USDA reported 101k tonnes of soybeans sold to Mexico this morning, split 53.5k tonnes old crop and 47.5k tonnes new crop.
ï‚· Algeria tendered for an unspecified amount of wheat for April shipment, with offers due by tomorrow.
 Morocco is facing the worst drought in 30 years, leading to expectations for a massive detrimental impact on grain production, with some citing expected losses of 80%. Last year saw Moroccan wheat production soar to near record levels of 7.54 MMT from 2020/21’s major drought-impacted 2.56 MMT, but wheat imports still remained high in 2021/22 at 5.0 MMT (5.4 MMT 20/21) due to the sharp decline in beginning stocks as a result of the previous year’s drought. Import needs
in 22/23 are very likely to be record high.
 NOPA will release their monthly soybean crush report today at 11:00 AM CT. The average estimate of January soybean crush by NOPA members is 186.7 million bushels (183.7-188.5 million bushels range of ideas), up slightly from December’s all-time monthly record of 186.4 million and slightly above last year’s January record of 184.7 million bushels. The average trade estimate of end January soybean oil stocks held by NOPA members is 2.062 billion pounds, up slightly from
2.031 billion in December, considerably above last year’s 1.799 billion and would be the highest for the month since 2012.