-Corn exports within expectations
-Soybean exports within expectations
-Wheat exports at upper end of expectations but still tepid
U.S. corn exports, for the week ended 2/03/22, were 1.053 MMT (41.5 million bushels), within market expectations of 975k-1.3 MMT (38.4-51.2 mil bu), nearly unchanged from the previous week’s 1.036 MMT (40.8 mil bu), but again well below last year’s same-week exports of 1.587 MMT (62.5 mil bu), resulting in cumulative export inspections of 732 million bushels falling to a 4-week high deficit to last year’s 851 million bushels of 13.9%. While corn exports have been quite steady of late, averaging 43.6 million bushels/week over the last five weeks, not a single week’s exports so far in 2021/22 have reached the current 51.6 million bushel/week average we estimate will be needed through the end of August in order to reach the USDA’s current 2.425 billion bushel export projection. This week’s activity included a modest 209k tonnes of corn being shipped to China, leaving them with rough 8.8 MMT of unshipped U.S. corn purchases still on the books vs 11.2 MMT officially at this time last year.
U.S. soybean export inspections last week were 1.218 MMT (44.8 mil bu), within market expectations of 1.0-1.85 MMT (36.7-68.0 mil bu), but down from the previous week’s 1.416 MMT (52.0 mil bu) and well below last year’s same-week exports of 1.906 MMT (70.0 mil bu). Over the last four weeks, soybean exports averaged 52.5 million bushels/week, solidly below last year’s 75.7 million/week average during the same period, resulting in cumulative export inspections of 1.383 billion bushels slipping to a 12-week high deficit to last year’s 1.814 billion bushels of 23.8%. We estimate soybean exports will need to average roughly 21.1 million bushels/week through the end of August in order to reach the USDA’s 2.050 billion bushel export projection vs last year’s 12.1 million/week average from this point forward. This week’s activity included 633k tonnes being shipped to China, leaving them with roughly 3.6 MMT of unshipped soybeans still on the books, taking into account USDA-reported daily sales announcements of late, vs 2.3 MMT at this time last year.
U.S. wheat exports last week of 418k tonnes (15.4 mil bu) were at the upper end of market expectations of 250-450k tonnes (9.2-16.5 mil bu) and were in line with the previous week’s 377k tonnes (13.8 mil bu) and last year’s same-week exports of 486k tonnes (17.8 mil bu). Over the last four weeks, wheat exports averaged 14.6 million bushels/week vs 16.1 million/week during the same period last year, leaving cumulative export inspections of 515 million bushels maintaining a nearly 18% deficit to last year’s 627 million vs USDA’s 825 million bushel export projection reflecting an estimated 17% decline from last year. In order to reach the USDA’s export projection, we estimate wheat exports will need to average roughly 15.1 million bushels/week through the end of May vs last year’s 18.7 million/week average from this point forward.
