-USDA reports notable soybean sale to unknown, split old/new crop
-Attache lowers Brazil corn crop ideas
-Ukraine winter crops in good shape – wheat area lower than planned
-Funds strong buyers in soybeans in latest CFTC data
USDA’s monthly WASDE report will be out Wednesday, February 9. Our pre-report commentary/analysis is available on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/46534. A summary of the average trade estimates is on the last page.
 The USDA ag attaché in Brazil sees this year’s total corn crop at 113.0 MMT vs 117.0 MMT previously, modestly below USDA’s official estimate of 115.0 MMT due to disappointing 1st crop output, but still obviously up sharply from last year’s very poor 86.0 MMT. Accordingly, they bumped estimated corn exports down to 42.0 MMT vs USDA’s 43.0 MMT estimate, but still up sharply from last year’s 20.5 MMT (USDA 19.5 MMT).
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 507k tonnes of soybeans to unknown this morning, nearly evenly split between old crop (249k tonnes) and new crop (258k tonnes). This, obviously, is most likely Chinese.
ï‚· On Thursday, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board will release their monthly report. The average estimate of January palm oil production is 1.303 MMT (1.190-1.335 MMT range of ideas) vs 1.451 MMT in Dec and 1.126 MMT last year, while end Jan palm oil stocks are estimated at 1.589 MMT (1.441-1.800 MMT range) vs 1.583 MMT in Dec and 1.325 MMT last year. January palm oil exports are estimated at 1.116 MMT (1.047-1.202 MMT range) vs 1.415 MMT in Dec and 947k
tonnes last year.  AgRural estimates Brazil’s soybean crop is now 16% harvested vs 10% last week and 4% last year, with rains slowing activity across Mato Grosso, Minas Gerais, Sao Paulo and MGDS. First crop corn harvest was estimated at 18% complete vs 14% last year. Safrinha corn planting is advancing rapidly, estimated at 24% complete vs just 3% last year.
ï‚· Chinese oilseed product markets played catch-up overnight in the first session back from the Lunar New Year holiday, with Dalian soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures rallying sharply by 8%, while soybean oil and palm oil were up 5-6%. Soybean and corn futures, though, were little-changed.
ï‚· The Rosario Grains Exchange said the next two weeks will be critical for the Argentine soybean crop as area estimated to be soil moisture deficit expanded to 60% of total area from 50% a week earlier. While some areas certainly have seen very beneficial rains, they said they were erratic and not as widespread as desired. Unfortunately, rain chance look limited this week, but potentially a bit better in the longer-term forecast.
 APK-Inform said Ukraine’s winter crops were mostly in good or satisfactory condition, while winter wheat planted area of 6.2 million hectares (15.3 mil acres) ticked up from last year’s 6.1 mil ha (15.1 mil acres) but fell short of the planned 6.66 mil ha (16.5 mil acres).
ï‚· Russian wheat export values declined solidly last week, with 12.5% protein Black Sea supplies down $7-$9/tonne according to Sovecon and IKAR to $319-$323/tonne fob as tensions over the Russian/Ukraine situation moderate.
ï‚· South Korea bought 199k tonnes of optional-origin corn over the weekend, priced at $339.49-$339.74/tonne c&f for Apr-May shipment periods. They also bought 110k tonnes of optional-origin feed wheat at $327.44-$328.39/tonne c&f for Mar-May shipment periods. Syria tendered for 200k tonnes of milling wheat with offers due by Feb 14.
 Friday afternoon’s CFTC Disaggregated COT data for the week ended 2/01/22, showed funds active buyers in soybeans, with their net long rising nearly 40k contracts during the week to 154k, while also being net buyers of 7k corn (net long 373k), 12k SBM (net long 77k) and 12k SBO (net long 80k). Funds were net sellers of 13k contracts in CBOT wheat (net short 26k) and 3k KCBT wheat (net long 38k), while being small net buyers in MPLS wheat of 0.6k (net long 4k).