-Argentine soybean crop ideas bumped lower
-USDA reports soybean sales to China
-Trade estimate summary for next week’s USDA report
-India extends edible oil stock limits
USDA’s monthly WASDE report will be out next Wednesday, February 9. Our pre-report commentary/analysis will be posted on Market Insights later today. A summary of the average trade estimates is on the last page.
 The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange lowered their estimate of Argentina’s soybean crop to 42.0 MMT from 44.0 MMT due to a
combination of lower yields and lower planted area ideas. The USDA last estimated the crop at 46.5 MMT, while the average
trade estimate for next week’s WASDE report is 44.5 MMT. Last year’s crop was 46.2 MMT according to USDA, but the BAGE
sees it as being 43.1 MMT. Accordingly, the new estimate by the BAGE reflects their view that the crop is down only 1.1 MMT
from last year.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 295k tonnes of soybean to China this morning, with 252k tonnes for old crop and 43k tonnes new
crop. There was talk yesterday China booked some cargoes of U.S. soybeans off the PNW for March shipment yesterday.
ï‚· India extended and further tightened edible oil and oilseed stock holding limitations on retailers and processors in order to help control the historically high price situation. Initial guidelines established in October were set to expire at the end of March, but have now been pushed back to June 30, while oilseed processors will only be allowed to hold stocks equivalent to 90 days of production capacity, wholesalers can only stock a maximum of 50 tonnes of edible oils and retailers a maximum of three tonnes. The situation is expected to improve with the eventual harvest of the new crop as total oilseed planted area jumped 23% from last year. A significant portion of the expected increase is from rapeseed, which was planted in Oct-Nov to be harvested MarchMay, with the crop potentially rising to 11 MMT from 8.5 MMT last year.
ï‚· South Korea bought 65k tonnes of corn (tendered for 138k tonnes) at $340.99/tonne c&f for April shipment. They also bought 110k tonnes of feed with, with 55k being Indian at $328.50/tonne c&f for April shipment and 55k tonnes being optional origin, but non-Indian, at $331.90/tonne c&f for March-May shipment options.
ï‚· Iran bought 180k tonnes of South American soybean meal for Feb-Mar shipment.