-Palm oil prices seen lower/production higher in 2022
-Good weekend South American rains
-USDA reports routine soybean/corn sales
-Cattle on Feed report higher than expected
-Russian/Ukraine tensions remain high – wheat market on edge
ï‚· A wire service poll of palm oil industry analysts and participants showed overall ideas of benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures to average 4,000 ringgit/tonne (~$955) in 2022, modestly below the 2021 average of 4,142 (~$989), but substantially below current levels with April futures closing at 5,260 ringgit/tonne (~$1255) overnight. General expectations are for palm oil prices to remain elevated, with continued notable volatility during the first half of the year, as Malaysia continues to deal with the substantial labor shortage, detrimentally impacting production, but for improved production in the 2nd half to ease prices. The same survey showed expectations for an increase in palm oil production this year, with average ideas for Indonesian production at 48.5 MMT (47.0-54.0 MMT range of ideas) vs 46.9 MMT in 2021 and Malaysian production at 18.8 MMT (18.6-19.2 MMT range) vs 18.1 MMT in 2021.
ï‚· Good weekend rains were seen across much of Argentina and southern Brazil, with additional amounts expected this week, as well.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 132k tonnes of soybeans to China this morning with 66k for old crop 2021/22 and 66k for new crop 2022/23 delivery. USDA also reported 150k tonnes of corn sold to unknown for 2021/22 this morning, as well.
ï‚· Heavy focus remains on the Russian/Ukrainian situation with ongoing concerns of a potential (likely?) Russian invasion, with significant sanctions from the U.S. and others being threatened if they do. Debate over the potential actual impact on grain exports from the region, should an invasion take pace, remains heavy but the uncertainty of the situation is keeping the wheat market, in particular, on edge.
ï‚· Russian wheat prices declined slightly last week by $1-$2/tonne according to Sovecon and IKAR, with 12.5% protein Black Sea port supplies at $326-$331/tonne fob.
 China sold 469k tonnes of wheat in the latest auction of state reserves, reflecting 94% of the offered amount, following the two previous auctions which saw 100% sold, while the average price paid of 2630 yuan/tonne ($415.31) was also down from the average price in the previous week’s auction of 2713 yuan/tonne ($426.04).
 Friday afternoon’s Cattle on Feed report showed On Feed as of Jan 1 at 100.6% of last year, above average expectations of 99.8 and above the range of ideas of 99.5-100.1. It was the first above year ago cattle on feed showing in seven months. The higher than expected on feed number was the result of placements being higher than expected, as well as marketings lower than expected. Specifically, Dec placements 106.5, sharply above average expectations of 102.6, while Dec marketings of 100.2 were below average expectations of 100.8.
 Friday afternoon’s CFTC Disaggregated COT data for futures/options combined for the week ended 1/18/22 showed funds net sellers in corn of 17.9k contracts to modestly lower their net long to 327k, while also being net sellers in soybeans of 7.2k contracts (net long 100k), 8.2k SBM (net long 65k), 6.6k KCBT wheat (net long 36k) and 1.9k MPLS wheat (net long 4k). Funds were net buyers of 2.3k SBO (net long 58k) and 2.9k CBOT wheat (net short 25k) for the week.