-Corn exports within expectations – near marketing year high
-Soybean exports lower than expected – sharply lower than year ago
-Wheat exports within expectations but remain tepid
U.S. corn exports, for the week ended 1/06/22, were 1.023 MMT (40.3 million bushels), within market expectations of 600k-1.25 MMT (23.6-49.2 mil bu) and were up solidly from the previous week’s 760k tonnes (29.9 mil bu) but below last year’s same-week exports of 1.345 MMT (53.0 mil bu), resulting in cumulative Export Inspections of 555 million bushels falling to a 5-week year-over-year high deficit of 15.0% vs last year’s 652 million bushels. This week’s activity included 275k tonnes of corn being shipped to China, leaving them with roughly 9.7 MMT of outstanding (unshipped) U.S. corn purchases still on the books vs roughly 6.0 MMT at this time last year. Last week’s Census Bureau release of official November trade data showed an unusually large deviation from Export Inspections data, with official corn exports for the month at 181.9 million bushels vs Inspections data of 143.9 million bushels. The deviation in September and October data was 19 and 17 million bushels, respectively, vs the 38 million bushel difference in November. This is something that will need to be monitored closely as the marketing year progresses as it is the Census Bureau’s data that gets reflected in the USDA’s balance sheets. Taking into account the higher Census Bureau exports vs Inspections data, we now estimate corn Export Inspections will need to average roughly 53.0 million bushels/week through the end of August to reach the USDA’s 2.500 billion bushel export projection vs last year’s 57.1 million/week average from this point forward.
U.S. soybean exports last week of 905k tonnes (33.3 mil bu) were below market expectations of 950k-1.5 MMT (34.9-55.1 mil bu), down solidly from the previous week’s 1.614 MMT (59.3 mil bu), significantly lower than last year’s same-week exports of 1.909 MMT (70.2 mil bu) and were a 14-week low as the seasonal decline in soybean shipments continues. This week’s activity included roughly 578k tonnes of soybeans being shipped to China and leaves them with roughly 3.7 MMT of unshipped purchases still on the books vs 5.1 MMT at this time last year (not taking into account the portion of sales to unknown that are likely Chinese). Cumulative export inspections of 1.163 billion bushels are now down a 7-week high relative to last year of 23.1%, with year ago cumulative Inspections at 1.511 billion bushels. There was nothing noteworthy with the November Census Bureau trade data relative to Inspections, so we see weekly soybean Inspections needing to average roughly 25.1 million bushels/week through the end of August to reach the USDA’s 2.050 billion bushel export projection vs last year’s 19.5 million/week average from this point forward. Without renewed buying interest of U.S. soybeans by China, we feel there is risk of 2021/22 U.S. soybean exports falling short of the USDA’s current annual projection.
U.S. wheat exports last week of 233k tonnes (8.6 mil bu) were within market expectations of 175-400k tonnes (6.4-14.7 mil bu), little-changed from the previous week’s 230k tonnes (8.5 mil bu) but again slightly below last year’s same-week exports of 281k tonnes (10.3 mil bu). Over the last eight weeks, wheat exports have averaged a rather tepid 9.6 million bushels/week vs last year’s 15.0 million/week average during the same period. Cumulative export inspections of 457 million bushels remain down 19% from last year’s 562 million, leaving wheat exports needing to average roughly 15.8 million bushels/week through the end of May vs last year’s 18.2 million/week average in order to reach the USDA’s 840 million bushel export projection. We continue to feel there is risk of 2021/22 exports falling short of the USDA’s current estimate.
