-Corn exports as expected
-Soybean exports within expectations
-Wheat exports at very bottom of expectations
U.S. corn exports, or the week ended 12/16/21, were 1.002 MMT (39.4 million bushels), in line with market expectations of 600k-1.2 MMT (23.6-47.2 million bushels), little-changed from the previous week’s 917k tonnes (36.1 mil bu) and modestly above last year’s same-week exports of 770k tonnes (30.3 mil bu). This week’s corn exports were a 9-week high as they continue to seasonally, albeit slowly, ramp up as the seasonal decline in soybean exports continues, as well. Over the last four weeks, U.S. corn exports averaged 34.4 million bushels/week, comparable to last year’s same-period average of 35.1 million/week, but still considerably below the roughly 53.0 million bushels/week we estimate will need to be averaged through the end of August in order to reach the USDA’s 2.500 billion bushel export projection, not much different than last year’s 56.4 million bushels/week average, which featured an aggressive export program to China during May-July which is currently looking questionable to repeat this year. This week’s activity included 210k tonnes of corn shipped to China, leaving them with roughly 10.3 MMT of unshipped U.S. corn purchases still on the books, based on last week’s Export Sales data, vs 7.3 MMT at the same time last year. Cumulative export inspections of 445 million bushels are down 12% from last year’s 506 million, while USDA is currently estimating 2021/22 exports to be down 9% on the year.
U.S. soybean exports last week were 1.679 MMT (61.7 million bushels), within market expectations of 1.5-2.1 MMT (55.1-77.2 mil bu), little-changed from the previous week’s 1.747 MMT (64.2 mil bu), but significantly below last year’s same-week exports of 2.857 MMT (105.0 mil bu), resulting in cumulative export inspections of 998 million bushels falling to a 4-week low deficit to last year’s 1.293 billion bushels of nearly 23%. Moreover, last week’s exports were an 11-week low as soybean shipments continue to seasonally ease ahead of the South American export program ramping up Feb-forward. This week’s exports included 809k tonnes shipped to China, leaving roughly 5.8 MMT of unshipped U.S. soybean purchases still on the books vs last year’s 7.1 MMT at this time last year. Additionally, there are likely around 3 MMT in unshipped sales on the books currently to unknown which are likely Chinese, comparable to the situation last year. We estimate soybean exports will need to average roughly 27.2 million bushels/week through the end of August in order to reach the USDA’s 2.050 billion bushel export projection vs last year’s 23.7 million/week average from this point forward.
U.S. wheat exports last week slipped to a 4-week low of just 212k tonnes (7.8 million bushels) from the previous week’s 269k tonnes (9.9 mil bu) and were considerably below last year’s same-week exports of 392k tonnes (14.4 mil bu) as the U.S. wheat export program remains in the doldrums. Over the last 10 weeks, U.S. wheat exports averaged 8.9 million bushels/week vs 13.5 million/week during the same period last year, while cumulative export inspections of 427 million bushels fell to a 20-week largest deficit to last year’s 519 million bushels of nearly 18%. Moreover, cumulative exports remain the lowest on record through 29 weeks of the marketing year going back nearly 50 years. In order to reach the USDA’s already-weak 840 million bushel export projection, we estimate wheat exports will need to average roughly 15.2 million bushels/week through the end of May vs last year’s 17.6 million bushel/week average from this point forward on the way to eventual annual exports of 992 million bushels.
