-Corn exports within expectations but a 5-week low
-Soybean exports at top of expectations
-Wheat exports lower than expected
U.S. corn exports, for the week ended 10/28/21, were modest at 619k tonnes and, while within market expectations of 475-900k tonnes (18.7-35.4 million bushels), were down marginally from the previous week’s 635k tonnes (25.0 mil bu), below last year’s 741k tonnes (29.2 mil bu) and were a 5-week low. This week’s activity included no shipments to China, with the majority of activity being routine shipments to Mexico and Japan. Cumulative export inspections of 214 million bushels remain down 22% from last year’s 272 million and are likely to remain well below year ago levels for the next few months as export loadings heavily favor soybeans at this time of the year before shifting to corn more heavily around the new year. Based on the USDA’s 2.500 billion bushel export projection, weekly corn exports will need to average roughly 50 million bushels/week over the remainder of 2021/22 vs last year’s 52.6 million/week average from this point forward.
U.S. soybean exports last week were seasonally strong again at 2.272 MMT (83.5 million bushels), down a bit from the previous week’s 2.566 MMT (94.3 mil bu) but comparable to last year’s same-week exports of 2.391 MMT (87.8 million bushels). A will very likely be the case for the next few months, China dominated weekly shipment activity with more than 1.4 MMT loaded, with heavy loadings out of the Gulf as operations are back to normal. Overall exports continue to play catch-up, though, with cumulative export inspections of 399 million bushels still down 37% from last year’s 631 million, not surprisingly the 3rd lowest of the last 10 years, only being better than the recent years impacted by the Chinese trade war. Based on the USDA’s 2.090 billion bushel export projection, we estimate soybean exports will need to average roughly 37.2 million bushel/week for the rest of the marketing year vs last year’s 34.8 million/week average from this point forward.
U.S. wheat exports last week were very disappointing again at a mere 115k tonnes (4.2 million bushels) and followed the previous two week’s exports of only 7.3 million and 5.2 million bushels, respectively. Cumulative export inspections of 355 million bushels are now down more than 15% from last year, the largest year-over-year deficit in 13 weeks and are the 3rd lowest of nearly the last 50 years for this point of the marketing year. While the market clearly appears to be excited about the level of global wheat demand of late, it certainly has not been for U.S. supplies. Based on the USDA’s 875 million bushel export projection, wheat exports will need to average roughly 15.4 million bushels/week through the end of May vs last year’s 16.9 million/week average from this point forward.
