-Corn exports lower than expected
-Soybean exports as expected
-Wheat exports lower than expected
U.S. corn exports, for the week ended 10/21/21, were 545k tonnes (21.5 million bushels), down significantly from the previous week’s 1.049 MMT (41.3 mil bu), the lowest in five weeks and below market expectations of 750k-1.2 MMT (29.5-47.2 mil bu). This week’s activity included only 67k tonnes of corn being shipped to China, with the largest exports going to Mexico at 272k tonnes. The slowdown in exports last week was a bit disappointing, but with the focus at this time of the year heavily on soybeans, it’s not that surprising after the initial catch-up from the Hurricane Ida impacts. Last year’s corn exports this week were comparable at 26.8 million bushels and averaged roughly 32 million bushels/week over the next six weeks so a period of modest corn exports in the weeks ahead should not be surprising. Cumulative export inspections of 186 million bushels remain down nearly 24% from last year’s 243 million, with export inspections needing to average roughly 49.3 million bushels/week over the remainder of 2021/22 to reach the USDA’s 2.500 billion bushel export projection vs last year’s 52.1 million/week average from this point forward.
U.S. soybean exports last week were solid at 2.104 MMT (77.3 mil bu), in line with market expectations of 1.8-2.6 MMT (66.1-96.5 mil bu), but were down modestly from the previous week’s 2.450 MMT (90.0 mil bu) and well below last year’s 2.889 MMT (106.1 mil bu). China accounted for the vast majority of exports again, as should be expected for at least the next three months or so, with 1.5 MMT shipped last week. Cumulative exports of 299 million bushels continue to claw their way back relative to last year, but are still down 45% vs 543 million bushels a year ago. Given the issues at the start of the marketing year, soybean exports will need to average roughly 38.6 million bushels/week from this point forward to reach the USDA’s 2.090 billion bushel export projection vs last year’s 36.0 million/week average in 2020/21’s 2.265 billion bushel export projection.
U.S. wheat exports last week were minimal again at only 140k tonnes (5.2 million bushels), the 2nd week in a row of exports at 5.2 mil bu and were well below last year’s 400k tonnes (14.7 mil bu) and below market expectations of 150-450k tonnes (5.5-16.5 mil bu). Cumulative export inspections of 348 million bushels are now down a 12-week high of 14.5% from last year’s 408 million and are the 2nd lowest of the last six years and 3rd lowest of the last 48 years we have accessible data for through mid-October. In order to reach the USDA’s 875 million bushel export projection, vs last year’s 992 million, we estimate wheat export inspections will need to average roughly 15.1 million bushels/week through the end of May vs last year’s 16.7 million/week average from this point forward.
