-Corn sales better than expected
-Soybean sales respectable/within expectations
-Wheat sales within expectations but tepid
-SBM/SBO sales better than expected
U.S. corn sales, for the week ended 9/30/21, were 1.265 MMT (49.8 million bushels), above market expectations of 350-800k tonnes and up sharply from the previous three weeks’ sales of only 9.7-14.6 million bushels/week. The vast majority of this week’s sales went to Mexico with 802k tonnes, with next largest sales being only 125k tonnes to Colombia. Now five weeks into the 2021/22 marketing year, total commitments of 1.046 billion bushels are holding onto a slight 3% year-over-year increase, but reflects a notable slippage since just four weeks ago when commitments were up 29% on the year. Based on the USDA’s 2.475 billion bushel export projection, we estimate corn sales will need to average roughly 29.3 million bushels throughout the Oct-Aug period vs last year’s 37.0 million/week average during the same period.
U.S. soybean sales last week of 1.042 MMT (38.3 million bushels) were within market expectations of 600k-1.2 MMT and little-changed from the previous week’s 40.1 million, continuing the steady/moderate pace of sales over the first five weeks of 2021/22 which have averaged 42.4 million bushels/week. However, the pace so far pales in comparison to last year’s 102.0 million bushel/week average during the first five weeks of the 2020/21 marketing year. Accordingly, total commitments of 931 million bushels are now down 38% from last year’s 1.490 billion. This week’s activity included 540k tonnes in net sales to China, bringing their total purchases so far to 12.4 MMT vs 22.1 MMT on the books at this time last year. Additionally, the lack of sales to non-Chinese buyers is of rising interest/concern, as well, as there are only 12.9 MMT in total sales so far to all non-Chinese destinations vs 18.4 MMT a year ago. Based on the USDA’s 2.090 billion bushel export projection, we estimate soybean sales will need to average roughly 24.5 million bushels/week over the remainder of the marketing year vs last year’s 17.0 million/week average from this point forward.
U.S. wheat sales last week were a tepid 333k tonnes (12.2 mil bu), within market expectations of 200-500k tonnes and meeting the roughly 12.1 million bushel/week average we estimate is needed based on the USDA’s 875 million bushel export projection, but hardly inspiring. Wheat sales over the last three weeks averaged 12.0 million bushels/week vs last year’s 17.0 million/week average during the same period. Total commitments of 419 million bushels are now down 21% from last year’s 534 million, while USDA is projecting 2021/22 exports to decline 12% year-over-year.
U.S. soybean meal sales for 2021/22 were 370k tonnes, above expectations of 50-250k tonnes, while soybean oil sales of 38.5k tonnes were also a bit above expectations of 0-30k tonnes. This week’s data reflected the last full week of the 2020/21 marketing years, with old crop “sales” seeing minor net cancellations of 22k tonnes for SBM and 5k tonnes for SBO, which is not uncommon. Heading into 2021/22, SBM is starting with total commitments of 3.689 MMT, comparable to last year’s 3.467 MMT, while SBO sales of only 69k tonnes are very weak compared to last year’s 177k tonnes.
