-Corn sales lower than expected
-Soybean sales within expectations
-Wheat sales at bottom of expectations
-SBM sales as expected/SBO sales remain minimal
U.S. corn sales, for week ended 9/23/21, were only 370k tonnes (14.6 million bushels), below market expectations of 400-900k tonnes, little-changed from the previous week’s 14.7 million bushels and massively below last year’s same-week sales of 79.8 million bushels. Even more discouraging is the fact total commitments for 2021/22 of 997 million bushels are now up less than 3% last year’s 969 million after previously running at a record pace and significantly above year ago levels ahead of the start of the new marketing year. It is almost certain commitments will fall below year ago levels in the coming weeks as corn sales over the next five weeks last year averaged nearly 68 million bushels/week, while sales over the last three weeks have averaged only 13.0 million bushels/week. The largest sales this week went to Guatemala with 138k tonnes. Based on the USDA’s 2.475 billion bushel export projection we estimate corn sales will need to average roughly 30 million bushels/week over the remainder of the marketing year vs last year’s 37 million bushel/week average from this point forward.
U.S. soybean sales last week of 1.094 MMT (40.2 mil bu) were within market expectations of 700k-1.2 MMT, up a bit from the previous week’s 33.2 million bushels, but slightly below average sales during the first three weeks of the 2021/22 marketing year of 44.6 million bushels. Year ago sales this week were huge at 99.5 million bushels as sales during the first 7 weeks of 2020/21 averaged a massive 98.1 million bushels/week. Accordingly, total commitments of 892 million bushels are now down 36% from last year’s 1.401 billion and likely to continue to lose ground in the weeks ahead. This week’s activity included 777k tonnes sold to China, bringing their total purchases so far to 11.8 MMT vs 20.6 MMT on the books at this time last year. Based on the USDA’s 2.090 billion bushel export projection, we estimate soybean sales will need to average roughly 24.7 million bushels/week over the rest of the marketing year, 34% higher than last year’s average sales from this point forward of 18.4 million bushels/week.
U.S. wheat sales last week were weak at only 290k tonnes (10.7 mil bu), near the bottom of market expectations of 250-550k tonnes, down from the previous week’s 13.0 million bushels and the lowest in five weeks. Total commitments of 407 million bushels are now down nearly 21% from last year’s 514 million bushels, leaving sales needing to average roughly 12 million bushels/week over the rest of the marketing year, the same as last year’s pace despite the USDA projecting a nearly 12% decline in exports this year to 875 million bushels. The largest sales this week were a mere 57k tonnes to Japan.
Soybean meal sales were within expectations with old crop sales at 67k tonnes (0-100k expected) and new crop sales at 163k tonnes (50-250k tonnes expected) with the 2020/21 marketing year nearing its end with only one full week of data now remaining. 2020/21 total commitments are up nearly 2% from last year vs USDA estimating exports unchanged so it will simply come down to the actual pace of shipments during September in how final exports play out relative to the USDA’s projection, while new crop commitments of 2.528 MMT are now below last year’s 2.886 MMT after consistently running better than year ago levels for months. Soybean oil sales remain minimal with 6k tonnes in old crop sales (-5k to +10k expected), while some new crop sales finally showed up with 22k tonnes sold last week vs 0-20k expected. Despite the largest new crop sales so far, total sales for 2021/22 are still only at 30k tonnes vs 123k tonnes in new crop sales at this time last year. Old crop total commitments are down nearly 46% from last year with one week remaining vs USDA estimating 2020/21 exports to be down nearly 40% on the year.
