-Corn exports at upper end of expectations but Ida recovery remains slow
-Soybean exports at upper end of expectations
-Wheat exports lower than expected
U.S. corn exports, for the week ended 9/23/21, were 518k tonnes (20.4 million bushels), at the upper end of market expectations of 300-575k tonnes (11.8-22.6 mil bu), up from the previous week’s 403k tonnes (15.9 mil bu) and the best in four weeks, but again well below last year’s same-week exports of 827k tonnes (32.6 mil bu) with cumulative export inspections through the first three full weeks of the 2021/22 marketing year at only 45 million bushels vs 111 million a year ago as the impacts of Hurricane Ida continue to limit export activity for the time being. This week’s activity included only 195k tonnes of corn being shipped from U.S. Gulf ports. Based on the USDA’s 2.475 billion bushel export projection, we estimate corn export inspections will need to average roughly 47.6 million bushels/week over the remainder of the marketing year vs last year’s 50.5 million/week average from this point forward.
U.S. soybean exports last week were also the best in quite some time, but at only 441k tonnes (16.2 mil bu), they continue to run substantially below year ago levels compared to 1.298 MMT (47.7 mil bu) this week last year, with cumulative 2021/22 exports now at only 35 million bushels vs 184 million at this time last year. Expectations for this week’s exports were 150-500k tonnes (5.5-18.4 mil bu). Soybean exports improved modestly from the previous week’s 277k tonnes (10.2 mil bu). Of the 441k tonnes shipped last week, it was encouraging to see 303k tonnes being from U.S. Gulf ports, but obviously overall activity remains very muted. In order to reach the USDA’s 2.090 billion bushel export projection, we estimate soybean export inspections will need to average roughly 40.5 million bushels/week through the end of the marketing year, nearly identical to last year’s 40.2 million/week average from this point forward.
U.S. wheat exports last week were disappointing at only 286k tonnes (10.5 mil bu), well below market expectations of 400-625k tonnes (14.7-23.0 mil bu), down from the previous week’s 565k tonnes (20.7 mil bu), last year’s 589k (21.6 mil bu) and were a new marketing year low through the first 17 weeks of 2021/22. Cumulative export inspection of 294 million bushels are now down nearly 14% from last year’s 340 million, leaving wheat exports needing to average roughly 15.1 million bushels/week vs last year’s 16.7 million/week in order to reach the USDA’s 875 million bushel export projection (992 million last year).
