-Australia sharply raises wheat crop estimate – canola record high
-Ukraine winter wheat area seen solidly higher
-Brazil corn crop ideas lowered further
-USDA reports HRW wheat sold to Nigeria
-Malaysian palm oil production ideas lowered
-USDA reports Friday – trade estimate summary included
USDA’s monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports will be out on Friday. Our pre-report commentary/analysis can be found on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/45054, while a summary of the average trade estimates is on the last page. Due to Monday’s holiday, this week’s regular USDA/EIA reports will be delayed one day from their usual releases, with Export Inspections and Crop Progress today, weekly ethanol data on Thursday and Export Sales on Friday. The CFTC’s COT data will still be out on Friday as usual, though.
 ABARES sharply raised their estimate of this year’s Australian wheat crop to 32.63 MMT from their previous estimate in June of 27.8 MMT and would be the 2nd largest on record, just short of last year’s 33.34 MMT. Their new estimate is well above USDA’s last idea at 30.0 MMT. ABARES also raised their estimate of the canola crop to a new record 5.03 MMT from 4.0 MMT previously and up from last year’s previous record 4.52 MMT, while the barley crop is now seen at 12.5 MMT vs 10.4 MMT previously and 13.1 MMT last year.
ï‚· Ukraine winter wheat planting is underway, with the ag ministry seeing a potentially sizable increase in area for the 2022/23 crop to 6.68 million hectares (16.6 mil acres) from 6.1 million hectares (15.1 mil acres) this year.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 327k tonnes of U.S. hard red winter wheat for 2021/22 delivery to Nigeria this morning.
 AgRural further ticked their estimate of the Brazilian corn crop down to 81.9 MMT from 82.2 MMT and compares to CONAB last at 86.7 MMT, USDA 87.0 MMT and last year’s 102.6 MMT. AgRural put the safrinha crop at 55.6 MMT vs CONAB’s 60.3 MMT and last year’s 75.1 MMT. New crop 1st crop corn planting is now 10% complete according to AgRural with a minor 0.6% increase in area from last year expected.
 The Malaysian Palm Oil Board lowered their estimate of 2021 total palm oil production to 18.0 MMT from 19.7 MMT previously and down from last year’s 19.14 MMT given ongoing COVID-related labor shortage issues. Despite the reduced production, they still see palm oil stocks at the end of 2021 rising to 1.7 MMT from 1.27 MMT last year, aided by an estimated 6.3% decline in exports this year to 16.3 MMT.
 Preliminary trade data showed China imported 9.49 MMT of soybeans in August, up from 8.67 MMT in July and in line with last year’s 9.60 MMT, bringing 2021 calendar year to date imports to 67.1 MMT vs 64.7 MMT last year and 2020/21 (Oct-Aug) marketing year to date imports to 92.9 MMT vs 88.7 MMT last year. Crush margins have rebounded from the record low levels in June, but remain negative, as do hog producing margins in key areas.
 Strategie Grains ticked their estimate of the EU rapeseed crop down to 16.93 MMT from 17.03 MM previously, but still modestly above last year’s 16.61 MMT. They now see the EU sunseed crop at 9.63 MMT vs 9.74 MMT previously, but still up solidly from last year’s 8.71 MMT.
 French farmer group AGPB sees this year’s soft wheat crop at 35.6 MMT, below the ag ministry’s latest estimate of 36.7 MMT, but above ag consultant Agritel’s recent estimate of 34.9 MMT. Heavy late-season rains detrimentally impacted quality and resulted in some outright production reduction ideas, as well.
 Russia’s ag minister said wheat exports through the first two months of 2021/22 (July-Aug) of 5.8 MMT are down 18% from last year’s 7.1 MMT.
 The lowest offer in Pakistan’s tender for wheat for Oct 1-Nov 30 shipment, in which a total of 550k tonnes was offered, was $369.50/tonne c&f with other offers ranging from $375.00-$386.60/tonne.
ï‚· Brazil lowered the required biodiesel blend to 10% from 13% previously given high soy prices.