-Corn sales higher than expected old crop, as expected new crop
-Soybean sales at top end of old crop expectations – higher than expected new crop
-Wheat sales at lower end of expectations
-SBM sales as expected old crop, better than expected new crop – SBO sales minimal
Old crop corn sales, for the week ended 8/05/21, were 378k tonnes (14.9 million bushels), a 10-week high and above market expectations of -100 to +200k tonnes, with new purchases by Mexico of 183k tonnes, but also included 71k tonnes in late-reported sales. Minimal net positive old crop sales to China of 11k tonnes were reflected in this week’s data. Despite the higher than expected sales, it still looks like the USDA’s 2.850 billion bushel export projection may prove a bit too high as we estimate sales over the last four weeks of the marketing year would still need to average 9-10 million bushels/week, a level not seen in the previous nine weeks. Additionally, China still has more than 2.2 MMT in old crop outstanding purchases still on the books after shipping only 352k tonnes last week. Without shipping nearly all of those purchases by the end of August, the USDA’s export projection would be unreachable. Total commitments of 2.760 billion bushels compare to 1.739 billion last year. New crop sales of 602k tonnes (23.7 mil bu) were within expectations of 400-900k tonnes, bringing 2021/22 total commitments to 712 million bushels vs new crop sales last year at this time of 452 million. There were no new crop sales to China for the week.
Old crop soybean sales were +97k tonnes (3.6 mil bu) vs expectations of -100 to +200k tonnes with China buying 85k tonnes during the week and really being the only old crop activity whatsoever. While quite small, last week’s soybean sales were the highest in 7 weeks, continuing to support the USDA’s 2.270 billion bushel export projection which we already see being reachable with existing sales on the books. Total commitments of 2.279 billion bushels compare to 1.743 billion last year. New crop sales were solid at 1.120 MMT (41.2 million bushels), above expectations of 500-900k tonnes, with China a reported net buyer of 328k tonnes, but also with 643k tonnes being reported to unknown – most of which is likely China as well. 2021/22 total commitments now stand at 431 million bushels, remaining well below new crop at this time last year of 661 million.
Wheat sales last week were disappointing at 293k tonnes (10.8 million bushels), near the bottom of expectations of 250-550k tonnes and a 5-week low, with the largest sales of the week being to unknown of 99k tonnes, but even those included 83k tonnes of late-reported sales. Total commitments of 320 million bushels are now a season-low 17% below last year’s 386 million, now 10 weeks into the 2021/22 marketing year. The USDA’s 985 million bushel export projection reflects an expected 12% decline from last year.
Old crop soybean meal sales of 116k tonnes were within expectations of 50-250k tonnes, but continuing to run well above the pace needed to reach the USDA’s export projection, which we currently see as being no more than 15-30k tonnes/week. While slowing as the marketing year end nears, old crop sales have still averaged 96k tonnes/week over the last five weeks. New crop sales of 268k tonnes were above expectations of 0-100k tonnes, bringing 21/22 total sales to 1.417 MMT vs new crop sales last year of 1.055 MMT. The soybean oil export program remains anemic with only 0.3k tonnes sold for the week and total old crop commitments now down 46% from last year vs USDA projection exports down only 38% for the year. Another downward revision in the USDA’s projection is possible today. Additionally, there still only 0.6k tonnes in total new crop sales on the books vs 81k tonnes at this time last year.
