-Decent weekend rains – more in forecast
-India to increase oilseed production – aims for vegoil self-sufficiency
-USDA reports routine new crop soybean sale
-Iraq wheat imports likely higher this year
-USDA reports Thursday – trade estimate summary included
USDA’s Crop Production and WASDE reports will be out Thursday. A summary of the average trade estimates is on the last page. Our pre-report commentary/analysis can be found on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/44764.
Corn and soybean conditions are expected to improve slightly in this afternoon’s update. Good rains were seen in large portions of the corn belt over the weekend, including the southern half of MN, all of WI, northeast SD, northeast IA, southwest NE, central KS and the southern half of IL. Additional decent rains are in the forecast for the eastern 2/3 of the belt over the
next 7-10 days. Energy markets are sharply lower this morning on the resurgence in COVID cases.
 India announced they are launching a nearly $1.5 billion plan to increase oilseed production with the long-term goal to become self-sufficient in edible oils. Over the last 20 years, India’s vegoil imports have risen dramatically from 4 MMT to 15 MMT, with projections rising to 20 MMT by 2030, spending $8.5-$10.0 billion annually on imports of late. They produce less than half of roughly 24 MMT in total annual vegoils consumed. The National Mission on Oilseeds and Oil Palm plan
will “provide farmers everything possible, including better seeds and technology†to expand production.
ï‚· Expected large sunflower crops in Russia and Ukraine have resulted in weakening sunoil prices relative to other vegoils, prompting expectations for potentially record Indian sunoil imports this year at the expense of competing oils. Crude sunoil for Dec-Feb shipment to India is currently being offered around $50/tonne cheaper than soybean oil vs year ago values at this time last year of a $100/tonne premium sunoil. Some see the potential for 2021/22 sunoil imports to jump to 2.6 MMT from 1.9 MMT this year, displacing soy and palm oil imports.
ï‚· Sovecon estimated Russia exported only 1.5 MMT of wheat in July vs 2.3 MMT last year and would be the lowest for the month in four years.
ï‚· USDA reported 102k tonnes of soybeans sold to unknown for 2021/22 delivery this morning.
 Preliminary trade data showed China imported 8.67 MMT of soybeans in July, down solidly from 10.72 MMT in June and last year’s 10.1 MMT with weak crush margins reported weighing on demand. Crush margins in Shandong province are still said to be in the red by over $30/tonne. Over the last three months (MayJuly), total imports of 29.0 MMT are down more than 5% from last year’s 30.6 MMT during the same period, while 2020/21 marketing year to date (Oct-Jul)
imports of 83.4 MMT are still up from last year’s 79.1 MMT. Total vegoil imports in July of 826k tonnes were down from 1.0 MMT in June/956k tonnes last year.
ï‚· Russian 12.5% protein Black Sea wheat export prices were up sharply last week, rising $13/tonne to $267-$268/tonne fob according to IKAR and Sovecon.
 Iraq said they will start buying wheat for import in early 2022 following this year’s poor crop, which resulted in state purchases from farmers of only 3.4 MMT vs 5.0 MMT last year. Iraq imported 2.8 MMT of wheat in 2020/21 and 2.1-2.3 MMT in the previous two years, but imported around 4.0 MMT in recent past years of
poor crops.
 Friday’s CFTC Disaggregated COT data for futures/options combined, for the week ended 8/03/21, showed funds decent net buyers in corn of 18.5k contracts, increasing their net long to 247k contracts, 12.2k CBOT wheat (net long 15k), 6.4k KCBT wheat (net long 38k), 3.4k SBO (net long 67k) and 1.9k MPLS wheat (net long 10k). Funds were net sellers in soybeans, though, of 15.8k contracts (net long 78k) and 4.3k SBM (net long 18k).