-Corn sales minimal but net positive, new crop sales higher than expected
-Soybean sales minimal but net positive, new crop sales as expected
-Wheat sales at bottom end of expectations
-SBM sales as expected, SBO sales minimal again
U.S. corn sales, for the week ended 7/29/21, were 68k tonnes (2.7 million bushels), within market expectations of -150k to +200k tonnes and returned to being net positive after the prior two weeks’ net cancellations of 4.5 million and 3.5 million bushels. Over the last eight weeks, corn sales have averaged a minimal 2.1 million bushels/week, increasing the potential for 2020/21 exports to fall short of the USDA’s 2.850 billion bushel export projection. Fine-tuning the “needed” sales pace to reach the USDA’s export estimate in the final weeks of the marketing year becomes difficult due to the delayed nature of official Census Bureau export data, but we estimate corn sales may need to average 10-12 million bushels/week during the month of August to allow export to reach the USDA’s estimate, which clearly has not been the case of late. This week’s old crop activity again included net cancellations by China of 113k tonnes, while they still have nearly 2.6 MMT of old crop purchases on the books, which essentially all will need to be shipped in the next four weeks if the USDA’s projection is to be met. Total commitments of 2.745 billion bushels compare to 1.724 MMT last year. New crop sales of 830k tonnes (32.7 mil bu) were above market expectations of 200-600k tonnes, but featured no sales to China while Mexico bought 239k tonnes and Japan 211k tonnes. Total new crop sales of 688 million bushels compare to 430 million last year.
Old crop soybean sales last week were minimal at 11k tonnes (0.4 mil bu), within expectations of -100k to +100k tonnes and followed the previous week’s net cancellations of 2.8 million bushels. Current total commitments of 2.275 billion bushels are already likely enough to allow the USDA’s export projection to be met given the difference between official Census Bureau exports and Export Sales data so essentially no further positive sales are needed in our opinion. This week’s activity included net cancellations by China of 41k tonnes, leaving them with roughly 700k tonnes of unshipped old crop purchases on the books. New crop sales were 425k tonnes (15.6 million bushels) vs expectations of 200-550k tonnes, with China buying 129k tonnes and 142k tonnes by unknown. Total new crop sales of 390 million bushels compare to 556 million last year.
U.S. wheat sales of 308k tonnes (11.3 mil bu) were at the bottom of market expectations of 250-700k tonnes, were a four-week low and were roughly half of last year’s same-week sales of 22.3 million bushels. There were no Chinese purchases this week. Total commitments of 309 million bushels remain solidly below last year’s 372 million at this time, a 17% decline while USDA’s 875 million bushel export projection reflects an estimated 12% decline in annual exports. Wheat sales will need to average roughly 12.1 million bushels/week from this point forward to reach the USDA’s export estimate vs 13.3 million/week on average last year.
Old crop soybean meal sales of 135k tonnes were within expectations of 50-300k tonnes, the best in four weeks and again easily enough to meet the roughly 32k tonnes/week in sales we estimate is needed through the end of September to reach the USDA’s export projection. New crop sales were minimal, though, at only 19k tonnes, below expectations of 25-125k tonnes, with total commitments of 1.149 MMT modestly above last year’s 985k tonnes at this time. Soybean oil sales remain anemic at only 3.2k tonnes and, while in line with expectations of -10k to +10k tonnes, barely met the estimated average “needed” sales pace of 3.1k tonnes, but sales over the last 12 week have averaged a mere 1.1k tonnes/week. Total commitments are currently down 46% from last year vs USDA projecting a 38% decline in annual exports for the year. New crop sales are only 0.6k tonnes vs 32k tonnes last year.
