Grains were solidly lower overnight with weather models adding a good rain event for the 11-15 day period, likely leaving weatherrelated price volatility high for the next week or so with each model run update.
 A private Brazilian ag consultant expects a sizable 6.7% increase in next year’s soybean area to 40.85 million hectares (100.9
million acres), which would allow for a solid jump in production to 144.7 MMT from their assessment of this year’s crop around 136.5 MMT. These ideas are comparable to USDA’s views in seeing next year’s crop at 144.0 MMT vs this year’s 137.0 MMT.
 The USDA ag attaché in the EU sees this year’s total wheat crop at 138.4 MMT, in line with USDA’s official estimate of138.2 MMT and up solidly from last year’s 126.3 MMT, with total exports expected at 33.4 MMT, a bit below USDA’s 34.0 MMT, but up from last year’s 31.0 MMT.
ï‚· The first cases of African swine fever in farm pigs in Germany have been identified in recent days (3 cases in Brandenburg),
making the transition from only being found in wild boars previously of more than 1200 cases. Interestingly, German pig prices have not reacted to the findings, holding unchanged from week ago levels, likely due to the fact the new farm cases are not in large pig operation locations and restrictions on animal movement in the area have been in place for some time following the ASF findings in wild boars. Many countries banned German pork imports in September 2020 after the initial findings.
 Ukraine reported total grain stocks held at medium/large ag companies as of July 1 were 5.4 MMT, nearly unchanged from last year’s 5.3 MMT, of which wheat accounted for 1.7 MMT vs 1.81 MMT last year.
 Please see our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/44622 for details on today’s USDA Export Sales report.
ï‚· U.S. corn sales were net cancellations of 88k tonnes (3.5 million bushels) as Chinese cancellations of 160k tonnes (6.3 mil bu)
more than offset all other sales for the week. China still has 4.4 MMT (174 mil bu) in old crop unshipped sales officially on the
books, with the handling of those sales likely to play a key role in 2020/21 final exports. New crop sales were minimal at 47k
tonnes (1.9 mil bu) vs expectations of 100-400k tonnes.
ï‚· U.S. soybean sales last week of 62k tonnes (2.3 mil bu) were within market expectations of -50k to +200k tonnes and still
slightly net positive despite consistent expectations to see some weeks of net cancellations. New crop sales of 176k tonnes (6.5 mil bu) were in the lower portion of market expectations of 100-450k tonnes.
ï‚· U.S. wheat sales were respectable at 473k tonnes (17.4 mil bu), in line with market expectations of 300-600k tonnes and were the best of the first 7 weeks of the 2021/22 marketing year.
ï‚· U.S. soybean meal sales of 68k tonnes were little-changed from the previous week’s 70k, but were just below the bottom of
market expectations of 75-300k tonnes and were a new marketing year low. Soybean oil sales were minimal again at 0.7k
tonnes, having averaged a mere 0.8k tonnes/week over the last 11 weeks
