-Warm(hot)/dry western belt outlook supports grain markets
-China pig crop recovers to pre-ASF levels
-Spring wheat conditions continue to decline – little change for corn/soybeans overall
Continued warm/hot temperature forecasts across the western belt with limited precip ideas are supporting the grain markets this morning, while the eastern belt remains in good shape.
 Overall U.S. corn crop conditions were unchanged last week at 65% good/excellent vs expectations for a 1% improvement and remain a bit below last year’s 69% g/e, but near the 5-year average. IL saw the largest improvement for the week, rising 5% g/e to 65% (63% last year), while IA was up 2% to 68% g/e (80% last year), NE up 1% and KS up 4%. Lower conditions for the week included ND down 4% to only 29% g/e, SD down 1% (30% g/e), OH down 4% (75% g/e) and TX down 10% (58% g/e). 56% of the crop was reported silking vs 52% average.
 U.S. soybean conditions improved 1% in g/e last week to 60%, as expected, but remain solidly below last year’s 69% g/e at this time. IL was up 4% to 60% g/e (67% last year), IA up 1% to 66% (79% last year), KS up 6%, NE up 2% and SD up 1%. On the other side, OH was down 8% g/e, MN down 2%, with IN, WI and ND all down 1%. Overall conditions remain the 3rd worst of the last nine years for mid-July. 63% of the crop is blooming vs 57% average, with 23% setting pods vs 21% average.
ï‚· Spring wheat conditions continue to decline, falling another 5% to only 11% g/e vs expectations for a 1% decline and compares to 68% g/e last year. ND was down another 5%, MN down 13% and MT down 4%. Overall conditions are now only marginally better than 1988, holding onto the 2nd worst rating on record for now.
ï‚· Winter wheat harvest is now 73% complete vs 59% last week, 73% last year and 74% average.
 For full details of yesterday afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress update, please see our Market Insights post at
https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/44584.
ï‚· A Chinese ag ministry official said the country’s pig herd at the end of June was 439 million head, reflecting 99.4% of the pig crop at the end of 2017, while the sow herd of 45.6 million is 102% of the end 2017 level, indicating a full recovery to levels before the 2018 onset of African swine fever. He said 11 outbreaks of the disease have officially been reported in 2021, resulting in the culling of 2,216 pigs, with control and prevention “still complicated.â€