-Attache sees lower Argentine soybean crop than USDA
-Corn/soybean conditions expected to improve this afternoon
-China leaves balance sheet ideas unchanged
-Malaysian palm oil stocks lower than expected
-USDA reports today at 11:00 AM CT – trade estimate summary included
USDA’s monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports will be out today at 11:00 AM CT. Our pre-report commentary/analysis can be found on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/44482. A summary of the trade estimates is on the last page. U.S. corn and soybean crop conditions are expected to improve 1-2% in good/excellent in this afternoon’s update, while spring wheat conditions continue to deteriorate. Good rains were seen over the weekend across much of the corn belt, with the Dakotas again seeing the lightest coverage/amounts, with many areas in those states dry.
 The USDA ag attaché in Argentina sees this year’s soybean crop at 44.5 MMT, solidly below USDA’s last official estimate of 47.0 MMT, the average market ideas for today’s USDA update of 47.1 MMT and last year’s 48.8 MMT. With the lower production, the attaché estimates soybean crush this year at 41.0 MMT vs USDA’s 42.25 MMT estimate and last year’s 37.7 MMT, with exports of only 5.0 MMT vs USDA’s 6.35 MMT official estimate and last year’s 6.7 MMT. The attaché sees farmers continuing to be very strong holders of this year’s crop, putting ending stocks at 11.8 MMT, sharply above USDA’s 7.7 MMT official estimate, and compares to last year’s attachéestimated 13.8 MMT (11.9 MMT USDA). Very early ideas on next year’s situation indicate only a minor increase in soybean area, with a return of better yields allowing for a crop of 51.2 MMT (USDA 52.0 MMT), crush of 42.5 MMT and exports of 6.5 MMT.
 China left their 2021/22 corn and soybean balance sheet ideas completely unchanged from last month in their latest estimates released today. They see this year’s corn crop at 271.8 MMT (USDA 268.0 MMT) vs last year’s 260.7 MMT, with new crop imports at 20.0 MMT vs 22.0 MMT old crop. USDA is estimating new crop imports at 26.0 MMT, unchanged from this year. Total corn consumption is estimated at 293.7 MMT vs 286.2 MMT this year, resulting in ending stocks declining by an estimated 1.9 MMT year-over-year. For soybeans, they see production at 18.7 MMT vs 19.6 MMT last, new crop imports at 102.0 MMT vs 100.4 MMT old crop and total consumption of 119.1 MMT vs 116.3 MMT old crop. USDA is currently estimating new crop imports at 103.0 MMT vs 100.0 MMT this year. Their balance sheet ideas reflect expectations for soybean stocks to rise 1.4 MMT in 2021/22 following a 3.6 MMT increase this year’s and a 7.9 MMT increase the previous year. Their total edible oil outlook was unchanged this month, as well, expecting total new crop imports of 8.5 MMT vs 10.2 MMT this year and flat consumption of 34.0 MMT.
ï‚· China is adding 10.85 MMT in grain storage capacity, announcing new building plans for 120 storage facilities across 18 provinces. According to state media, China has more than 650 MMT of total grain storage capacity.
 The Malaysian Palm Oil Board reported end June palm oil stocks were 1.614 MMT, below average market expectations of 1.686 MMT, but still up moderately from 1.569 MMT in May and a 9-month high, while continuing to run well below year ago levels of 1.898 MMT. The lower than expected stocks were due primarily to June production of 1.606 MMT falling short of expectations of 1.682 MMT, a odest increase from 1.572 MMT in May, but well below last year’s 1.886 MMT. Malaysia exported 1.419 MMT of palm oil in June vs 1.392 MMT expected, 1.269 MMT in May and 1.711 MMT last year.
ï‚· With the overall price weakness last week, Black Sea region wheat prices followed suit with 12.5% protein Russian supplies down $4-$12/tonne, depending on the price source, to $234-$238/tonne fob, while Ukrainian values were down $8/tonne to $219-$229/tonne fob.
ï‚· Saudi Arabia bought 505k tonnes of wheat as a result of their recent tender, at an average price of $287.00/tonne c&f, all for October arrival.