-Statistics Canada’s acreage report holds no surprises
-Russian wheat crop idea bumped higher
-U.S. corn/soybean conditions do not improve as expected
-Spring wheat conditions continue to plummet
-USDA reports tomorrow – trade estimate summary included
USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks report and Acreage report will be released tomorrow at 11:00 AM CT. Our pre-report commentary/analysis can be found on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/44340. A summary of the trade estimates is on the last page.
 Statistics Canada updated crop acreage estimates this morning putting 2021/22 all wheat area at 23.357 million acres, in line with average expectations of 23.3 million acres (22.5-24.9 million range of ideas), essentially unchanged from their April estimate of 23.260 million and down from last year’s 24.982 million. Durum wheat area was estimated at 5.531 million acres, in line with average expectations of 5.5 million and compares to 5.71 mil in April/5.689 mil last year. Canola area was put at 22.479 million acres, right in line with the average estimate of 22.5 mil acres (22.0-23.0 mil range) and up from 21.53 million in April and 20.783 million last year, while oat area was put at 3.423 million acres vs the average estimate of 3.6 mil acres (3.3-3.8 mil range), 3.61 mil in April and 3.839 million last year. Barley area was put at 8.296 mil acres vs 8.4 mil expected (7.6-8.9 mil range), 8.61 mil in April and 7.561 mil last year.
ï‚· The frost/freeze event (last night/tonight) in Brazil looks to have the greatest impact on roughly 10% of total safrinha corn crop area with varying degrees of damage potential in those areas, while another 30% of safrinha area may experience some minor impact. Overall impact is likely to be quite limited, with the ongoing drought having a much greater impact on the crop in big picture.
 IKAR raised their estimate of the Russian wheat crop again, now at 83.6 MMT vs 82.0 MMT previously and compares to USDA last at 86.0 MMT and IKAR’s reflection of last year’s crop of 85.9 MMT (USDA 85.4 MMT). IKAR estimated this year’s wheat exports at 39.0 MMT vs USDA last at 40.0 MMT and last year’s USDA-estimated 38.5 MMT, although Sovecon shows 2020/21 exports at 36.4 MMT.
ï‚· China plans to auction 156k tonnes of imported U.S./Ukrainian corn from state reserves on July 2.
 Indonesia’s new lower palm oil export levy structure will go into place July 2, lowering the levy to $175/tonne from $255/tonne currently.
ï‚· Thailand tendered for 198k tonnes of feed wheat for Aug-Dec shipment periods, while Tunisia tendered for 100k tonnes of soft wheat and 100k tonnes of feed barley for July-Aug shipment.
 Roughly 40% of the corn belt saw .25-1.25†rains over the last 24 hours, favoring central MO and IL, along with southern MN and NW IA. The GFS is decently optimistic for rains in the Dakotas, NE, IA and MN in the 6-10 day period, while the Euro also shows some rains but lesser amounts. Most areas east of the Mississippi, as well as MO, could use some drying out now.
 Yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress update showed corn crop conditions unexpected declining 1% in good/excellent vs ideas for a 1% increase, as the 4% increases in IL and IA and 3% increase in IN were overshadowed by the 7% decline in MN and 10% decline in SD. Similarly, soybean conditions were unchanged vs expectations for a 1% increase, with IL, IA, MO and IN all up 1%, while MN was down 8% and SD down 7%. Overall corn and soybean conditions are both modestly below their 5-year and 10-year averages so all eyes will be on changes in the coming weeks as benefit from the recent rains is anticipated.
ï‚· U.S. spring wheat conditions continue to plummet, down another 7% in g/e last week to only 20%, with overall conditions remaining the 2nd worst on record only better than 1988. While ND was up 1% g/e and SD up 5%, MN was down 19% and MT down 22% for the week.
ï‚· U.S. winter wheat harvest is now 33% complete vs 17% last week and 40% average, with strong gains in IL and MO ahead of the rains.