-Corn exports lower than expected/”needed”
-Soybean exports at bottom of expectations/below “needed” pace
-Wheat exports lower than expected
U.S. corn exports, for the week ended 6/24/21, were a 23-week low at 1.008 MMT (39.7 million bushels), coming in below market expectations of 1.2-1.7 MMT (47.2-66.9 mil bu) and, for the first time in 18 weeks, falling below the average “needed” weekly export pace, currently at roughly 50 million bushels/week. However, there is a caveat to this week’s “disappointing” export number in that last week’s exports were revised solidly higher to 69.9 million bushels from the initially-reported 58.3 million as 274k tonnes (10.8 mil bu) was added to China for the week. Revisions in weekly Inspections numbers are common, but the revision to last week’s number was a bit more than usual. This week’s shipments included “only” 335k tonnes to China, well below the roughly 700k-1.0 MMT/week in shipments of late and the reason for the shortfall relative to expectations. Cumulative export inspections of 2.237 billion bushels are up 71% from last year’s 1.309 billion with 9 full weeks remaining in the 2020/21 marketing year. A one-week slowdown in exports is obviously not of much concern, but will need to be watched as the majority of China’s roughly 6.0 MMT in unshipped sales still on the books will likely need to be loaded by the end of the marketing year in order to reach the USDA’s export projection.
U.S. soybean exports last week of 104k tonnes (3.8 million bushels) were at the bottom of market expectations of 100-300k tonnes (3.7-11.0 mil bu), down from the previous week’s 205k tonnes (7.5 mil bu), below the roughly 7 million bushels/week needed in order to reach the USDA’s export projection and were a new marketing year low. Cumulative export inspections of 2.101 billion bushels are up 55% from last year’s 1.353 billion. Exports to China were essentially zero for the week, while they still have roughly 750k tonnes in unshipped old crop purchases still on the books. Over the last four weeks, soybean exports averaged 6.2 million bushels/week, a touch below the current “needed” pace and will clearly need to be watched over the coming weeks.
U.S. wheat exports last week of 286k tonnes (10.5 mil bu) were uneventful, as well, falling below market expectations of 400-600k tonnes (14.7-22.0 mil bu), down solidly from the previous week’s 551k tonnes (20.3 mil bu) and were easily the lowest of the first four weeks of the 2021/22 marketing year. Cumulative export inspections of 56 million bushels are now down 24% from last year’s 74 million as the new year’s export program is off to a less-than-impressive start. In order to reach the USDA’s 900 million bushel export projection, exports will need to average roughly 16.5 million bushels/week vs 17.7 million/week average from this point forward last year. If the USDA materially lowers spring wheat production in the July Crop Production report from the current assumption used for the all wheat crop estimate in the balance sheet, which is quite likely, a further lowering of their 2021/22 export projection would likely be seen.
