-Heavy rains continue across much of the corn belt
-Brazilian safrinha corn crop idea lowered, corn export ideas low
-Argentine crop ideas held steady with soybean harvest complete
-USDA reports new crop SBM sold to Mexico
-Trade estimate summary for June 30 USDA reports
Over the last 24 hours, roughly half of the corn belt saw .50-3.0†rains, focused on the southern ½ of IA, northern ½ of MO, most of WI and IL and the eastern ½ of IN. Locally heavy amounts of 4-8†were seen in parts of IA, MO and IL. An additional 1.5-4+†is expected across most of MO, IL and IN through the weekend, with .50-1†expected for IA and SE MN, but limited amounts may be seen in much of MN and the Dakotas.
USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks report and Acreage report will be released Wednesday, June 30 at 11:00 AM CT. Our pre-report commentary/analysis can be found on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/44340. A summary of the trade estimates is on the last page.
 The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said Argentina’s soybean harvest is effectively complete, with their crop estimate holding at 43.5 MMT, solidly below USDA’s 47.0 MMT and last year’s 48.8 MMT. They put the corn harvest at 48% complete, maintaining their crop estimate at 48.0 MMT (USDA 47.0 MMT/51.0 MMT last year) with yields still said to be running better than expected.
 Agroconsult lowered their estimate of Brazil’s safrinha corn crop to 65.3 MMT from 66.2 MMT previously and compares to CONAB last at 70.0 MMT and 75.1 MMT last year. Accordingly, they now see the total corn crop at 90.2 MMT vs 91.1 MMT previously, CONAB’s 96.4 MMT, USDA’s 98.5 MMT and last year’s 102.6 MMT (USDA 102.0 MMT). Agroconsult sees Brazilian corn exports this year at 24.2 MMT vs 35.1 MMT last year and USDA 33.0 MMT.
ï‚· USDA reported 122k tonnes of soybean meal sold to Mexico this morning, with 84k tonnes for 2021/22 and 28k for 2022/23.
ï‚· French soft wheat conditions declined 2% in good/excellent over the last week to 79%, with 1-2% declines also for corn and barley. Overall conditions, though, remain quite good and well above year ago levels.
 Yesterday afternoon’s Hogs and Pigs report showed all hogs and pigs as of June 1 down 2.2% from last year, in line with expectations, the fourth consecutive quarter of year-over-year declines and follows March 1 down 1.7% and Dec 1 down 1.6%. Kept for breeding at 98.5% of last year was a bit lower than expected, while kept for marketing at 97.7% was a bit higher than expected. Jun-Aug and Sep-Nov farrowing intentions were both lower than expected at 95.6% and 98.2%, respectively.
ï‚· This afternoon, USDA will release the monthly Cattle on Feed report. The average trade estimate of Cattle on Feed as of June 1 is 100.5% of last year (99.0-101.2 range of ideas), while May placements are estimated at 95.4 (93.0-99.4 range) and May marketings are estimated at 123.4 (121.6-126.0 range).