-Another huge corn/soybean planting week, spring wheat activity improves
-Winter wheat conditions tick higher
-USDA announces soybean sales to China, corn to Mexico
-Brazil April soybean exports shatter previous all-time record
-U.S./China trade rhetoric continues
 It was another massive planting week for much of the U.S. last week, with the corn crop already 51% planted vs 39% average and 21% last year, which was above average expectations of 48% for the week and up from the previous week’s 27%. IA is already 78% complete vs 46% avg, while MN is 76% vs 36% avg. IL is 56% planted, in line with average of 54%. Over the last two weeks alone, an estimated 41 million acres of corn were planted vs 27.5 million acres if planting was occurring in line with the average pace.
ï‚· Soybean planting was impressive last week, as well, jumping to 23% complete from 8% the previous week and remaining well ahead of average of 11%. Average expectations were 21%. IA soybean planting surged to 46% complete vs 9% avg, with IL 31% vs 12% avg, NE 32% vs 10% avg and MN 35% vs 10% avg. An estimated 12 million acres of soybeans were planted last week vs the average planting pace implying 5.2 million acres would have been planted.
ï‚· Spring wheat planting saw a better week, advancing to 29% complete from 14% the week prior, in line with expectations, but still well behind average of 43%. ND is now 15% planted vs 5% last week and 33% avg.
ï‚· Winter wheat conditions improved 1% good/excellent last week vs market expectations for a 1% decline, with NE up 3% g/e, KS up 2% and OK up 2%, but TX was down 7%. IL SRW was up 5%, with OH up 2% and AR up 10%, but MO was down 1%. Overall, HRW and SRW conditions remain slightly above the 5-year average for early May, while white wheat conditions are a bit below the 5-year average. USDA will issue their first objective production estimate of the winter wheat crop in the May 12 reports.
 For full details of yesterday afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress update, see our post at ttps://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/39993.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 378k tonnes of soybeans to China this morning, with 136k for 2019/20 and 242k for 2020/21 delivery. This is likely part of the sales made late last week. USDA also reported 109k tonnes of corn sold to Mexico, with 45k old crop and 64k new crop.
 While official data for the month has not yet been released, Brazilian government estimates of average daily soybean exports for April implied total exports for the month may have been as high at 16.3 MMT (600 million bushels) and would shatter the previous record monthly exports of 12.35 MMT in May 2018. March exports were 11.64 MMT (428 mil bu), while year ago April exports were 9.4 MMT (345 mil bu). To put that in perspective, all-time record U.S. monthly soybean exports are 410 million bushels in October 2016. Early ideas on May exports, according to Safras & Mercado, are around 9 MMT vs last year’s 10.0 MMT for the month. We would note a Brazilian marine trade group, Cargonave, estimated April exports were around 14.2 MMT, still a new record, but below those indicated by average daily export numbers by the government.
 President Trump said he will cancel the Phase One trade deal if China does not live up to their commitment to buy $200 billion in total U.S. ag products and other goods through 2021 stating, “They took advantage of our country. Now they have to buy and if they don’t buy, we will terminate the deal.†Political analysts have expressed their view that China is “not likely†to cancel the trade deal over the President’s recently escalating rhetoric, but may seek to delay meeting the
terms of the agreement given the global pandemic.
ï‚· The Malaysian Palm Oil Board will release their monthly report on May 10. The average estimate of end April Malaysian palm oil stocks is 1.910 MMT (1.823-2.024 MMT range of ideas, up solidly from March stocks of 1.729 MMT and would be the highest since December. Year ago April stocks were 2.729 MMT. April
palm oil production is estimated at 1.606 MMT (1.380-1.677 MMT range), up sharply from 1.397 MMT in March and the highest since October. Year ago April production was 1.649 MMT. April palm oil exports are estimated at 1.225 MMT (1.100-1.300 MMT range) vs 1.181 MMT in March, but well below year ago April exports of 1.651 MMT.
ï‚· Ukraine will decide on the 2020/21 wheat export quota sometime in July, according to the Economy Minister, who also reiterated there is no need to limit old crop corn exports at this time, as the situation continues to be monitored. He also stated current wheat stocks are around 1.5-2.0 MMT above year ago levels currently.
ï‚· Argentine wheat area for the soon-to-be-planted 2020/21 is estimated up 1.5% from last year at 6.7 million hectares (16.6 mil acres) by the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange and the Bahia Blanca Grains Exchange.
ï‚· The USDA announced a $100 million grant program for expanding higher biofuel blend infrastructure nationwide. Of the total, $86 million is allocated to ethanol infrastructure (blender pumps, etc., at fueling stations) and $14 million for biodiesel infrastructure initiatives. Grants are available to cover up to 50% of total eligible project costs to a maximum of $5 million.
Weather
Rains of .25-.75†fell in the western ½ of MN, most of IA, MO, IL and the SW ½ of IN yesterday. The current system will continue for another 24 hours and bring additional totals of around .50†or less to the same areas that saw the rains fall in the past 24 hours. Conditions will then quiet down for Wednesday, with another system to bring rains of .25-.75â€+ to far southern IA, most of MO and the southern ½ of IL, IN and OH by Friday. A system for Sunday is indicated to bring rains of generally less than .50†to areas mainly north of I-80, with another system by Wednesday and Thursday to bring rains of .20-.60â€, with a few isolated heavier totals, to the majority of the corn belt.