-Iowa estimates 10 mil acres impacted in some degree by derecho winds
-China raises new crop corn/soybean consumption ideas
-USDA reports soybeans sold to China/unknown
-Ukraine corn crop/exports ideas lowered
-USDA reports today at 11:00 AM CT
Report day. USDA’s monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports will be out at 11:00 AM CT. Our pre-report commentary/analysis can be found at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/41045. A summary of the average trade estimates is on the following page.
Iowa’s Ag Secretary said around 10 million acres of farmland in the state was impacted by some degree by Monday’s derecho wind event. Satellite images and pictures continue to heavily circulate in the market, but massive unknowns remain on what actually will be harvested or what will be lost.
China’s monthly supply/demand revisions saw 2020/21 total corn consumption raised to 288.2 MMT from 285.2 MMT last month, and would be up nearly 10 MMT from 278.3 MMT in 19/20. Feed demand ideas were raised with the hog industry recovery proceeding faster than expected, but was partially offset by reduced industrial usage. With this year’s estimated crop left unchanged at 266.5 MMT (260.8 MMT last year), 20/21 ending stocks are now estimated to decline 16.7 MMT from this year vs the previously-estimated 14.0 MMT decline. China is still estimating 20/21 corn imports at 5.0 MMT vs 6.0 MMT this year, which appears quite unrealistic as they already have 5.7 MMT in new crop U.S. corn purchases on the books alone. USDA is currently estimating this year’s Chinese corn crop at 260.0 MMT, with imports at 7.0 MMT and 20/21 ending stocks declining 10 MMT from this year. China also raised 20/21 total soybean consumption 2 MMT from last month to 113 MMT (108.6 MMT 19/20) and raised 20/21 imports to 95.1 MMT from 93.6 MMT previously and compares to 96.0 MMT this year. They now see 20/21 soybean ending stocks rising slightly by .65 MMT vs last month’s expected 1.15 MMT increase and follows 19/20’s 5.4 MMT stocks increase. The USDA is currently estimating 20/21 Chinese soybean imports at 96.0 MMT, unchanged from this year, and ending stocks unchanged for 20/21, as well. China left their estimate of 20/21 total vegoil imports unchanged from last month at 7.7 MMT, which would be down from this year’s 8.35 MMT. Total vegoil consumption in 20/21 is estimated at 33.8 MMT vs 32.9 MMT this year. China does not issue actual ending stocks estimates, instead providing their estimated change in total stocks from the previous year.
USDA reported soybean sales this morning of 258k tonnes to China and 120k tonnes to unknown for 20/21 delivery.
Ukraine’s grain traders union UGA lowered their estimate of the country’s corn crop to 36.4 MMT from 38.9 MMT previously due to late season dryness in some regions. Accordingly, they lowered their estimate of 2020/21 Ukrainian corn exports to 31 MMT from 33 MMT previously (JulyJune basis), but would still be up from last year’s Jul-Jun exports of 29.9 MMT. USDA last estimated this year’s crop at 39.0 MMT and exports at 33.0 MMT (Oct-Sept) vs last year’s 35.9 MMT and 32.0 MMT, respectively.
The EU re-imposed a 5.48 euros/tonne ($6.42) import tariff on corn, effective immediately, after the import price of U.S. corn slipped below the regulatory floor price once again. The import tariff applies to sorghum and rye, as well. The EU adjusts the import tariff on the basis of the 10-day rolling average import price.
Ahead of the routine Phase One trade deal status update meeting between the U.S. and China this weekend, White House economic advisor Kudlow said progress with the deal is “fine right now.”
Indonesian palm oil production in the first half of 2020 (Jan-June) was 23.5 MMT, down 8.9% from last year’s 25.8 MMT, while 1st half exports of 15.5 MMT were down 11.7% from last year’s 17.55 MMT according to the Indonesian Palm Oil Association.
Malaysian Aug 1-10 palm oil/product exports were 372k tonnes, down 19.4% from the same period last month according to SGS. This follows July total monthly exports of 1.672 MMT, which were up solidly from June’s 1.510 MMT and last year’s 1.438 MMT.
Egypt ended up buying 120k tonnes of Russian wheat in this week’s tender and was priced at $219.60/tonne c&f ($205.50 fob) for Sept 25-Oct 5 shipment. This was down nearly $8/tonne from their previous purchase on August 5.
A system Thur-Sat is expected to bring .50-1”, with areas of 1”+, to most of MN and the western 2/3 of IA. Totals of .30-1” are seen for most of OH, with the rest of the Midwest to see generally under .25” for the period. For the 6-10 day period, the European sees little to no rain for all of the corn belt, while the GFS sees totals of .30-.80” to fall across around 75% of MN, with totals generally less than .30” elsewhere. There is more confidence in the GFS at this time. The 11-16 day outlook sees a NW flow aloft continuing into most of the period, bringing below average precip and temps. By the very end of the period (August 24-26) the GFS indicates some ridging to occur, which would provide above average temps and limited rains. Temps will run average to a bit below average for most of the next week to ten days, with the best chances for average readings