-Brazil bumps soybean crop ideas higher/slightly lowers corn crop
-France raises wheat export ideas
-China thought to buy US soybeans for Dec-Jan, USDA reports sales to unknown
-US corn harvest remains very slow across the north
EIA weekly ethanol data is delayed until tomorrow due to Monday’s holiday. Export Sales and NOPA crush will be out on Friday.
CONAB raised their estimate of expected new crop soybean production to 120.9 MMT from 120.4 MMT in their initial estimate last month, with planted area seen rising 2.3% on the year. CONAB reflects this production estimate as a record, surpassing the record crop two years ago of 119.3 MMT and up from last year’s 115.0 MMT. USDA’s estimates of the Brazilian crop are consistently a bit above CONAB’s, though, currently looking for the coming crop to be 123.0 MMT, up from their reflection of last year’s crop at 117.0 MMT and the record two years ago of 122.0 MMT. CONAB sees new crop Brazilian soybean exports at 72.0 MMT, unchanged from last month’s estimate and up only 2.0 MMT from last year’s 70.0 MMT, well below USDA current new crop export ideas of 76.3 MMT, with USDA’s year ago exports also at 70.0 MMT. CONAB ideas reflect higher domestic consumption of soybeans for the coming year at 48.6 MMT vs USDA’s 46.6 MMT estimate, an increase from this year’s 45.0 MMT (USDA 45.7 MMT).
CONAB left their estimate of the coming corn crop unchanged from last month at 98.4 MMT, reflecting a slight decline from last year’s 100.0 MMT, while USDA is last at 101.0 MMT for new crop and old crop production. CONAB is currently estimating 1st corn crop planted area to rise just 1% from last year, with 2nd crop (safrinha) area unchanged year-over-year. CONAB also left their estimate of new crop corn exports unchanged at 34.0, reflecting a solid decline from this year’s estimated record exports of 59.0 MMT (USDA at 36.0/41.0 MMT, respectively).
France raised their estimate of 2019/20 soft wheat exports to non-EU countries to 12.0 MMT from 11.7 MMT last month, reflecting a significant increase from last year’s 9.7 MMT following the strong rebound in production this year. They modestly lowered this year’s soft wheat crop estimate, though, to 39.5 MMT from 39.7 MMT previously, but still up sharply from last year’s 34.0 MMT.
Traders believe anywhere from 2-7 cargoes (120-420k tonnes) of U.S. soybeans were sold to China yesterday for Dec-Jan shipment. USDA reported sales of 106k tonnes of soybeans to unknown this morning under the daily reporting system. The aggressive pace of U.S. shipments to China of late, though, is said to be resulting in a backlog of vessels awaiting offloading in Chinese ports, with some putting the total as high as 2 MMT, as state agencies deal with logistical issues in finding room in state reserve warehouses for the incoming supplies.
U.S. corn harvest across the north remains extremely slow with ND just 15% complete vs 10% last week and 76% avg, while SD is 39% complete vs 27% last week/82% avg and WI is 30% vs 21% last week/65% avg. MN made decent progress last week and is now 63% harvested vs 44% last week and 87% avg. Nationwide, 66% of the crop is harvested vs 52% last week and 85% avg. Respectable progress was made across the heart of the corn belt last week, with delays relative to average mostly in the 13-22% range now.
Harvest activity last week remained heavily on soybeans with ND jumping to 74% complete from 56% last week/98% avg, while SD is 91% vs 82% last week/98% avg and MN 91% vs 80% last week/99% avg. WI is 71% harvested vs 62% last week/92% avg. Nationwide, soybean harvest is 85% complete vs 75% last week and 92% avg. IL, IN and OH harvests are 87%, 88% and 86% complete, respectively, while IA is 91% and NE 96%. Delays across the heart of the belt are minor at just 3-8% now.
Full Crop Progress details are available at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/38029.
Winter wheat conditions declined by a solid 3% good/excellent last week to 54%, now unchanged from last year, with widespread declines being reported (KS down 4% g/e, NE down 9%, OK down 13%, IL down 3%, OH down 4%). Again, though, winter wheat conditions in the fall growing season hold very little relationship with yield prospects historically.
Weather Brazilian growing regions still look to see rains of 1-2” fall in most areas in the next 5 days. The 6-10 day sees rains of 1-2” to fall across northern sections of MGDS and Sao Paulo, as well as most of Mato Gross, Goias and Minas Gerais, with totals of generally less than .50” in the rest of the growing regions of Brazil. Argentine growing regions look to see rains of .50-1”+ fall across all but northern Buenos Aries and southern Entre Rios in the next 5 days. The 6-10 day now indicates rains of .50-1”, with areas of 1”+ to fall in most of the Argentine growing regions. Temps will be running near average in most of the South American growing regions in the next 10 days. Some light snows will work through MN, WI and northern IA today, bringing a general 1-3” to those areas. Otherwise, the rest of the week and thru midnext week look to be dry across the region. Model differences for the 2nd half of next week exist with the GFS indicating snows to much of MN and rains to northern IA and most of WI with early estimates of 4-8” range for snow and .30-.80” range for rain. The rest of the region looks to be mainly dry through the middle of next week. The European model indicates a bit of light rain/snow possible in MN, WI and IA, with rains of .20-.80” to fall in MO and the southern 2/3rd of IL, IN and OH the middle of next week.