-Soybean sales very strong again – at top end of expectations
-Corn sales strong again – in upper end of expectations
-Wheat sales at bottom end of expectations
-SBM and SBO sales disappointing
U.S. soybean sales, for the week ended 09/10/20, were very strong again at 2.457 MMT (90.3 million bushels), coming in at the top end of expectations of 1.5-2.8 MMT and followed the previous week’s 116.2 million bushels. This week’s activity included new sales to China of 1.24 MMT, bringing their reported sales on the books to 17.4 MMT vs a mere 530k tonnes bought at this time last year. Since this week’s data “as of date,” China has bought at least another 852k tonnes (including today’s) according to the daily sales announcements. 2020/21 total commitments of 1.188 billion bushels are record high for mid-September and compare to last year’s 411 million, while representing 56% of the USDA’s 2.125 billion bushel annual export projection. While extremely high compared to recent years, this is simply more of a return to the “normal” situation during the heaviest Chinese early buying years from 2012/13-2014/15 when mid-September total commitments averaged 54% of eventual annual exports. We estimate soybean sales will need to average roughly 20 million bushel/week over the course of 2020/21 to reach the USDA’s export projection vs last year’s 26.7 million/week average from this point forward.
U.S. corn sales last week were strong again at 1.609 MMT (63.4 million bushels), in the upper portion of market expectations of 800k-1.9 MMT and followed the previous week’s 71.8 million bushels. This week’s activity included new net sales to China of only 220k tonnes, but there were at least 610k tonnes in new sales to unknown, as well. China now has 9.2 MMT of U.S. corn officially on the books for 2020/21, while another 350k tonnes in purchases were announced since the “as of” date for this week’s report. Total export commitments of 805 million bushels are record high for mid-September and compare to last year’s 341 million at this time. Based on the USDA’s 2.325 billion bushel export projection, we estimate corn sales will need to average roughly 29.6 million bushels/week throughout the marketing year vs last year’s 28.3 million/week average from this point forward.
U.S. wheat sales last week were disappointing at 336k tonnes (12.3 million bushels), at the bottom end of market expectations of 300-700k tonnes, down from the previous week’s, comparable to the previous week’s 12.2 million bushels and among the lowest sales of the first 15 weeks of 2020/21. Total commitments of 483 million bushels are still up 7% from last year’s 452 million bushels, leaving sales needing to average roughly 13.8 million bushels/week vs last year’s 14.6 million/week from this point forward in order to reach the USDA’s 975 million bushel export projection.
Old crop soybean meal sales were net cancellations of 106k tonnes vs expectations for net sales of 25-100k tonnes, while new crop sales of 197k tonnes were also below expectations of 200-450k tonnes. The old crop cancellations put a crimp on reaching the USDA’s export projection as the marketing year winds down as total commitments are now back to 1% below last year vs the USDA estimating exports up 2.7% on the year. 2020/21 total commitments of 2.068 MMT compare to new crop sales at this time last year of 2.038 MMT. Soybean oil sales were non-existent last week at 0.1k tonnes for old crop and zero new crop vs expectations of 0-10k and 0-30k tonnes, respectively. It looks at though old crop exports may still need a bit further downward revision from the USDA’s current estimate.
