-Soybean sales lower than expected – 6-week low
-Corn sales at bottom of expectations – 4-week low
-Wheat sales lower than expected – 24-week low/2nd lowest of marketing year
-SBM/SBO sales as expected
U.S. soybean sales, for the week ended 11/28/19, were a 6-week low at 684k tonnes (25.1 million bushels), coming in below market expectations of 700k-1.3 MMT and were substantially below average sales of the previous four weeks of 55.0 million bushels/week. Net sales to China last week were just 112k tonnes. Total commitments of 953 million bushels are still up 7% from last year’s 887 million at this time due to Chinese total purchases of 9.6 MMT so far vs just 516k tonnes on the books at this time. While that is definitely nice to see, the flip side of the story is that total sales to all other destinations of 16.3 MMT are down substantially from 23.5 MMT at this time last year. Soybean sales will need to average roughly 21.5 million bushels/week over the remainder of the marketing year in order for the USDA’s 1.775 billion bushel export projection to be reached vs last year’s 23.2 million/week average from this point forward.
U.S. corn sales last week of 546k tonnes (21.5 mil bu) were a 4-week low and were at the bottom end of market expectations of 500-900k tonnes, while being less than half of last year’s same-week sales of 46.3 million bushels. Total commitments of 575 million bushels are down 45% from last year’s 1.053 billion bushels at this time, are the lowest in 7 years and the 2nd lowest of the last 33 years for late November. We estimate corn sales will need to average roughly 31.4 million bushels/week over the rest of 2019/20 to reach the USDA’s 1.850 billion bushel projection vs last year’s 23.4 million/week average from this point forward. This week’s largest sales were just 247k tonnes to Japan.
U.S. wheat sales last week were just 228k tonnes (8.4 million bushels), a 24-week low and 2nd lowest of the first half of the 2019/20 marketing year so far, while coming in below market expectations of 300-700k tonnes. Total commitments of 605 million bushels are now up just 5.5% from last year’s 573 million, after being up more than 20% year-over-year in mid-September and starting the marketing year with 35% yoy gains. Further deterioration the sales gain to last year is likely through the end of the year as last year’s sales over the next four weeks averaged 20.0 million bushels/week, a level seen only once in the last 12 weeks of late. Wheat sales will need to average roughly 12.5 million bushels/week through the end of next May to reach the USDA’s 950 million bushel export projection vs last year’s 14.5 million/week average from this point forward.
U.S. soybean meal sales of 181k tonnes were within market expectations of 100-300k tonnes, as were soybean oil sales of 10.8k (5-25k expected), but were both far from inspiring. At least both met their respective average “needed” sales paces, though, relative to the USDA’s current export projections. Soybean meal total commitments of 4.984 MMT are down nearly 17% from last year, though, vs USDA estimating exports to decline just 2%, while soybean oil commitments of 332k tonnes are unchanged from last year vs USDA projecting a 12% decline in exports on the year.
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