The USDA revised February soybean crush data originally released Wednesday afternoon, April 1. The revisions lowered February crush to be slightly less than market expectations from the initial reflection of sharply higher than expected crush, while February soybean oil stocks were lowered, but were still above wire service-reported market expectations.
Without making mention that a revision was even made in the updated data file posted on the USDA website, and not reflected by wire services yet that we’re aware of, the USDA revised February soybean crush to 175.3 million bushels from 181.6 million originally reported and compares to average market expectations initially reported of 176.9 million bushels. February crush was up 7.7% from last year and easily a new record for the month, but was 6.3 million bushels less than originally reported. USDA revised February soybean oil production to 1.996 billion pounds from 2.075 billion originally reported, which prompted a downward revision in end February soybean oil stocks to 2.378 billion pounds from 2.420 billion initially reported. This was still above average market expectations of 2.270 billion pounds and up slightly from January stocks of 2.352 billion pounds and well above year ago Feb stocks of 2.149 billion. USDA revised February soybean meal production to 4.123 million tons from 4.270 million originally reported. Updated charts of monthly crush and soybean oil stocks are below.
As this came to our attention after the posting of our pre-report commentary/analysis, it will slightly impact our ideas on 2019/20 marketing year crush to around 2.135 billion bushels vs 2.140 billion discussed in the post. This puts our 2019/20 U.S. soybean ending stocks estimate at 453 million bushels vs 448 million discussed in the post. We made appropriate revisions to our comments regarding the crush situation in our pre-report commentary, which is available at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/39652.
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