This morning, in the opening session of the USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum, some preliminary ideas on the 2020/21 U.S. crop situation were released by the USDA. Their full initial ideas on the 2020/21 balance sheets will be released tomorrow morning.
Initial 2020/21 acreage ideas by USDA indicate expectations for total acreage among corn, wheat and soybeans to rebound to 224.0 million acres from last year’s significantly flood-impacted 211.0 million and compares to the sum of average wire service survey estimates of 223.8 million acres. While obviously recovering from last year’s disastrous situation, we would note the USDA’s three-crop combined total area of 224.0 is still moderately below the 225.7-227.6 million acres planted in the 2015 through 2018 crop years. Initial USDA corn acreage ideas were put at 94.0 million acres vs 89.700 million last year and compares to the 94.5 million acres USDA showed in their previously-released baseline projections. A wire service survey ahead of today’s numbers put the average expectation at 93.6 million acres (92.0-95.5 million range of ideas). USDA looks for soybean acreage at 85.0 mil acres vs 76.100 mil last year and compares to the 84.0 mil they penciled in for their baseline projections. Average market expectations were put at 85.0 million acres (83.0-87.5 million range). All wheat planted area is seen at 45.0 mil acres by USDA vs 45.158 mil last year and the baseline balance sheet putting this year’s acreage at 45.0 million, while average market expectations were 45.2 million (43.7-48.0 million range). Based on the USDA’s January Winter Wheat Seedings report estimate of 30.804 million acres, USDA’s total spring wheat (other spring + durum) acreage assumption would be 14.196 million acres vs last year’s 13.999 million. USDA reflected cotton acres at 12.5 million acres vs 13.738 million last year. Combined corn, soybean, wheat and cotton acres are estimated by USDA at 236.5 million acres vs 224.7 million last year and the prior 4-year average (2013-2018) of 237.7 million (234.3-240.0 million range), while total 8-major crop acreage (corn, sb, wheat, cotton, other feedgrains, rice) is seen at 250.7 million acres in 2020 vs 238.0 million last year and the 2016-2018 range of 252.3-253.9 million acres.
The table below shows a comparison of the USDA’s February Ag Outlook Conference acreage estimates to actual acreage over the last 15 years.
The 2020/21 corn average farm price expectation was put at $3.60/bushel and compares to 2019/20’s estimated $3.85.
USDA sees the 2020/21 U.S. average farm price for soybeans at $8.80/bushel vs an estimated $8.75 for 2019/20.
The 2020/21 wheat average farm price is seen $4.90/bushel vs $4.55 for 2019/20.
The 2020/21 cotton average farm price was estimated at 64.0 cents/lb vs 62.0 for 2019/20.
For livestock, USDA sees the 2020 U.S. cattle average price at $117.00/cwt vs $116.78/cwt for 2019, hogs at $49.00/cwt vs $47.95/cwt for 2019 and broilers at 87.0 cents/pound vs 88.6 cents/pound for 2019.
The following table provides a comparison of the USDA’s February Ag Outlook conference price estimates vs actual levels over the last 12 years.
USDA will release the full look at the 2020/21 balance sheets tomorrow morning.