-Russia likely to keep grain export quota mechanism in place, but not seen as restrictive
-USDA reports routine soybean sale to Mexico – no China announcements
-U.S. soybean harvest moving quickly, corn in line with average
-USDA reports tomorrow – trade estimate summary included
USDA will release the quarterly Grain Stocks report and Small Grains Annual Summary report tomorrow at 11:00 AM CT. Our prereport commentary/analysis can be found on Market Insights at Https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/41539. A summary of the average trade estimates is on the following page.
USDA reported 100k tonnes of soybeans sold to Mexico for 2020/21 this morning. There were no soybean or corn sales
announcements to China/unknown.
Russia’s ag ministry said maintaining the mechanism of setting a grain export quota for the Jan-June period remains relevant even in the context of this year’s expected very large wheat crop simply as a way to ensure domestic supplies are adequate. The union of grain exporters does not expect any quota which may be imposed as being restrictive following a regular meeting with the ag ministry. Some at the meeting expressed ideas the Jan-June total grain export quota could end up being around 20 MMT. Last year, total grain exports during the Jan-June period were 17.1 MMT, with wheat accounting for 12.7 MMT.
Australia’s weather bureau officially deemed the La Nina an “active event,” raising its status from an “alert” previously, with
expectations for above normal precip for northern and eastern parts of the country through at least the end of the year.
Australia’s wheat crop has already gone through the key heading development stage amid favorable conditions and should finish strongly given the current forecast. A massive increase in their wheat crop from the recent years’ drought-impacted levels is expected, with ABARES last estimating the crop at 28.9 MMT vs last year’s 15.1 MMT. USDA raised their estimate to 28.5 MMT from 26.0 MMT previously in the September WASDE report.
Thailand tendered for 213k tonnes of optional origin feed wheat for Nov-Jan shipment, with offers due by tomorrow.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress update showed the U.S. corn harvest 15% complete (17% expected) vs 10% the previous week and 16% average, with soybean harvest 20% complete (18% expected) vs 6% last week and 15% average. Corn crop conditions
were unchanged for the week at 61% good/excellent and compare to 57% last year, while soybean conditions improved 1% g/e to 64% and compare to 55% g/e last year. Winter wheat planting is 35% complete, in line with expectations and compares to 34% last year and 33% average. For full details of yesterday’s Crop Progress report, please see our post at
Brazil’s 1st corn crop is now 32% planted vs 23% the previous week, 29% last year and 21% average.
First notice day for October soybean meal and oil deliveries is tomorrow.
Rains of .40-1” fell across eastern OH and the OH River Valley, with generally less than .35” in the rest of the belt east of the MS River and less than .10” west of the river. The rest of the week will see cold air aloft support hit and miss showers across most of the belt through Thursday, with most totals under .25”. Friday looks to be mainly dry. In the 6-10 day period, .35-.85” is expected for most of the belt Friday night, Saturday and Saturday night, with only the western ¼ to 1/3 of MN and IA to see less than .25”. Temps in the next 10 days will run below average across the region, but no freezing temps are seen.
The Brazilian growing regions look to see rains of .50-1”+ fall in most of RGDS and Santa Catarina both this week and again in the 6-10 day, with little in the way of rain see for other areas. Argentine growing regions look to see rains of generally less than .30” fall with coverage of around 65-70% in the next 5 days. The 6-10 day period has mixed ideas from the models, with the GFS indicating dry weather for all Argentine growing regions and the European sees rains of .30-.80” to fall in the southern 2/3 of Buenos Aires and most of Entre Rios.