-Chinese buying spree continues
-China leaves 2021 TRQs unchanged
-Early ideas on 2021 US soybean acres higher, corn steady, wheat mixed
-Favorable harvest weather in forecast
ï‚· China set the 2021 low import tariff quotas (TRQ) unchanged from 2020 levels with corn at 7.2 MMT, of which 60% (4.32 MMT) is allocated to state firms and 40% (2.88 MMT) to private firms, and wheat at 9.636 MMT (90% state (8.67 MMT) and 10% private (.96 MMT). While the official TRQ levels were left unchanged, an unidentified source indicated China may issue special permits to allow low tariff imports above the TRQs.
ï‚· USDA reported soybean sales this morning of 264k to China and 360.5k tonnes to unknown, along with corn sales of 120k tonnes to unknown, as well.
 A Farm Futures magazine survey of next year’s U.S. planting intentions put early ideas on 2021/22 U.S. soybean acreage at 87.9 million acres, up 4.1 million acres from this year’s 83.8 million, with corn at 91.8 million acres, down 200k acres from this year’s 92.0 million. Winter wheat planted area was estimated at 31.3 million acres vs 30.55 million this year and would be the first increase from the previous year in 8 years. Next year’s “other spring†wheat acres were estimated at 11.6, down from this year’s 12.2 million. The survey was conducted July 14-27, well before the $1.00/bushel+ rally in soybeans began, which has pushed the new crop soybean/corn price ratio out to 2.50 currently, with the spot ratio at 2.73, adding further incentive to increase soybean acres vs corn for the time being.
 Strategie Grains notably lowered their estimate of the EU corn crop to 64.9 MMT from 67.4 MMT previously and compares to last year’s 64.5 MMT. USDA was last at 66.3 MMT, down from 67.8 MMT in August. They actually bumped the EU soft wheat crop estimate up to 129.3 MMT from 128.0 MMT, but remains sharply below last year’s 147.2 MMT.
ï‚· Egypt ended up buying 235k tonnes of wheat in their latest tender, 60k tonnes Polish ($249.23/tonne c&f) and 175k tonnes Russian ($248.24-$250.82/tonne c&f).
 Please see our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/41474 details on today’s USDA Export Sales report.
ï‚· U.S. soybean sales were very strong again at 2.457 MMT (90.3 million bushels), coming in at the top end of expectations of 1.5-2.8 MMT and followed the previous week’s 116.2 million bushels. This week’s activity included new sales to China of 1.24 MMT, bringing their reported sales on the books to 17.4 MMT vs a mere 530k tonnes bought at this time last year.
ï‚· U.S. corn sales last week were strong again at 1.609 MMT (63.4 million bushels), in the upper portion of market expectations of 800k-1.9 MMT and followed the previous week’s 71.8 million bushels. This week’s activity included new net sales to China of only 220k tonnes, but there were at least 610k tonnes in new sales to unknown, as well. China now has 9.2 MMT of U.S. corn officially on the books for 2020/21.
ï‚· U.S. wheat sales last week were disappointing at 336k tonnes (12.3 million bushels), at the bottom end of market expectations of 300-700k tonnes, down from the previous week’s, comparable to the previous week’s 12.2 million bushels and among the lowest sales of the first 15 weeks of 2020/21.
ï‚· Old crop soybean meal sales were net cancellations of 106k tonnes vs expectations for net sales of 25-100k tonnes, while new crop sales of 197k tonnes were also below expectations of 200-450k tonnes. Soybean oil sales were non-existent last week at 0.1k tonnes for old crop and zero new crop.
Weather
Dry weather looks to dominate the majority of the corn belot through the week ahead. A few showers still look to pop across western MN and far western IA by Monday of next week. Totals with that look to be less than .20â€, with spotty coverage. The 6-10 day model ideas hold some differences with the GFS staying dry, while the European sees an area of low pressure to bring rains of .20-.60†to most areas north and east of a line from Sioux Falls SD to Springfield IL to Louisville KY, with things dry to the SW of that line. No cold threats through the 16-day period.