-Expected Argentine tax increase temporarily supports markets, but poor Export Sales overshadows
-Australia finally sees improving weather outlook
-Export Sales generally disappointing, except 6-year high sorghum sales
-Friday first notice day for March deliveries
 The Argentine Ag Ministry suspended export registrations for grains/oilseeds yesterday creating expectations an increase in export taxes is forthcoming. The soycomplex found support on this during yesterday’s session accordingly. Most expectations are export taxes on soybean, soybean meal and soybean oil will be raised by 3% to 33%. With Argentina being the global leader in SBM and SBO exports, the potential benefit to the U.S. could be more for the products than for soybeans. There is debate whether taxes will be raised for corn and wheat, as well, though.
 Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology sees a 70% likelihood of above average rains across much of Western Australian, South Australia and Victoria, with average rains expected for New South Wales and Queensland, during the coming 3-month, March-May period. This coincides perfectly with the Australian wheat planting period which gets underway in late April.
ï‚· Tomorrow is first notice day for March deliveries. Ideas on corn deliveries are 0-100 contracts, 200-500 contracts soybeans and no CBOT wheat deliveries, while limited KCBT wheat are possible and MPLS deliveries are expected to be heavy. SBO deliveries are expected to be heavy, as well.
ï‚· There were no USDA reported sales today.
ï‚· Please see our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/39148 details on the USDA Export Sales report.
ï‚· U.S. soybean sales were minimal at just 339k tonnes (12.5 mil bu), falling from the previous week’s disappointing sales of 15.7 million bushels, were massively below last year’s same-week sales of 77.9 million bushels and were below market expectations of 600-900k tonnes. Additionally, this week’s sales were the 2nd lowest of the first 25 weeks of the 2019/20 marketing year and included new sales to China of a mere 6k tonnes.
ï‚· U.S. corn sales last week of 865k tonnes (34.0 mil bu) were at the lower end of market expectations of 800k-1.3 MMT, were down from the previous week’s 49.3 mil, well below last year’s same-week sales of 48.8 mil and were the lowest in six weeks.
ï‚· U.S. wheat sales of 382k tonnes (14.0 mil bu) were below market expectations of 400-600k tonnes and were below year ago same-week sales of 17.5 million, but slightly improved from the previous weeks 12.5 million bushels.
ï‚· U.S. soybean meal sales were a 7-week low of 158k tonnes, slipping from the previous week’s 169k and were at the bottom end of market expectations of 150-350k tonnes, but were better than last year’s same-week sales of 114k. More importantly, they were above the roughly 120k tonnes/week SBM sales need to average in order to reach the USDA’s export projection. Soybean oil sales were also a 7-week low at just 5.6k tonnes, declining notably from the 42.5k/week average over the previous six weeks. However, SBO sales only need to average around 6k tonnes/week anyway in order to reach the USDA’s export projection.
ï‚· This week’s Export Sales report reflected rather notable sales of sorghum of 445k tonnes (17.5 mil bu) with 324k tonnes reported to unknown and 119k tonnes to China. These were the largest single-week sorghum sales since mid-December 2014.
Weather The overall Argentine forecast remains dry through the 10-day outlook window. Current soil moisture levels should be adequate to maintain good conditions, but a continuation of the pattern would start to raise some attention. Abundant, regular rains continue across the northern half of Brazilian growing areas, while the southern rains look limited. Rains of .30-1â€+ fell across most areas from Parana north yesterday and were quiet south. .50-1.5†amounts are expected for most of Mato Grosso, Goias, Minas Gerais and northern Sao Paulo in the next 5 days, with another 1-2†for most of Mato Grosso, Goias, Minas Gerais and northern Sao Paulo in the 6-10 day period.