-Wet weather stalls US harvest, provides price support
-Argentine wheat crop expected record large, record corn area seen
-Brazilian soybean exports expected very strong for coming year
-USDA reports SBM sales
Grain markets are maintaining support heading into the wet weekend and wet week ahead. Limited harvest activity is likely to be
seen over the next 7-10 days across much of the western 2/3 of the corn belt. Difficult wheat harvesting in conditions in Canada
(snow) are also providing support.
The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimates this year’s Argentine wheat crop at a record 19.7 MMT, up 8.8% from their year
ago crop estimate of 18.2 MMT and is slightly larger than USDA’s latest idea of 19.5 MMT (18.0 MMT last year). The said 54% of
the crop currently has adequate to optimal moisture conditions. The exchange estimates nearly 20% of the Argentine corn crop
has been planted of an expected record 5.8 million hectares (14.3 million acres), which is notably above USDA current ideas of
5.0 million hectares being planted vs 5.2 million last year. The exchange is preliminarily looking for the Argentine corn crop to be
around 43.0 MMT, above USDA’s 41.0 MMT and last year’s 32.0 MMT.
Brazilian ag consultant Safras & Mercado sees Brazil exporting 79 MMT of soybeans from the coming crop, solidly higher than
USDA current assumptions of 74.4 MMT and would be up from this year’s USDA-estimated 74.8 MMT. Safras sees Brazilian
soybean crush next year at 40.0 MMT vs 41.8 MMT this year, as they look for higher exports at the expense of crush than USDA
does, as USDA sees the coming year’s crush at 42.7 MMT vs this year’s 43.2 MMT.
The Malaysian Palm Oil Board will release September data on October 10. The average trade estimate of end Sept Malaysian
palm oil stocks is 2.471 MMT (2.35-2.80 MMT range of ideas), down marginally from 2.489 MMT in August, but remaining well
above year ago September stocks of 2.021 MMT. September production is estimated at 1.862 MMT (1.768-1.880 MMT range), up
from 1.622 MMT in August and 1.780 MMT last year. September exports are estimated at 1.650 MMT (1.221-1.759 MMT range)
vs 1.100 MMT in August and 1.518 MMT last year.
USDA reported the sale of 134k tonnes of soybean meal to the Philippines for 2018/19 delivery this morning.
France’s corn harvest is 42% complete, rising sharply from 21% the previous week and is ahead of last year’s 30% pace. Winter
wheat planting is 5% complete vs 6% last year.
French soft wheat exports for the first 2 months of 2018/19 (Jul-Aug) of 2.78 MMT are up 9% from last year. Exports to non-EU
destinations of 1.52 MMT are up 23%.