-Russian/Ukrainian export limit talk supports wheat
-USDA reports modest soybean/corn sales, but not to China
-Argentine grain exports requested to halt for 15 days
-USDA Hogs and Pigs report higher than expected
-Argentine soybean harvest underway – early yields disappointing
-Trade estimate summary for March 31 USDA reports
USDA will release the quarterly Grains Stocks report and Prospective Plantings report next Tuesday, March 31, at 111:00 AM CT. A summary of the average trade estimates is on the following page. Our pre-report commentary/analysis can be found on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/39522.
 The wheat market was strong overnight on ideas of Russian grain exports being limited once again. This has been an on-and-off focus of the wheat market in recent weeks. The government previously asked the Ag Ministry to propose a grain export quota and that was done overnight, with the recommendation to “limit†April-June grain exports to 7 MMT. In our opinion, this is a non-event in context of wheat exports, by far the largest component in the grain export mix, as Russian wheat exports during Dec-Mar totaled around 8.6 MMT, well below last year’s 10.4 MMT during the same period, which were then followed by total exports during Apr-Jun 2019 of 4.0 MMT. This year’s Russian wheat exports have consistently run notably below year ago levels and last year’s exports over the coming 3-month “quota period†were nearly half of what the proposed quota would allow. Even with the record-shattering April-June exports in 2017/18 of 9.5 MMT, average exports during the 3- month period over the last four years have been 5.6 MMT. Without 17/18, wheat exports have averaged 4.3 MMT for the period in recent years.
 Several Ukrainian bakers/millers associations have asked the government to limit grain exports to help ease the rise in wheat prices, which has seen domestic price increases of as much as $18/tonne in some areas. Just yesterday, though, a deputy ag minister said Ukraine has no plans to limit exports. This was followed this morning by an Economy Ministry comment, though, that they are monitoring wheat exports and are ready to “take the necessary measures†if needed.
ï‚· USDA reported the sales of 163k tonnes of soybeans to Mexico and 114k tonnes of corn to unknown for 2019/20 delivery.
ï‚· A labor union representing inspectors at Argentine grain ports requested all operations be suspended for 15 days, saying the coronavirus pandemic is severe enough to justify such a move. No immediate response from the government was made.
 Argentina’s soybean harvest is just underway, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, at 4.6% complete, but early yields have been disappointing as they warned of a possible lowering of their 52 MMT crop estimate to come. Corn harvest is 15.8% complete, making just 2% progress this week amid wet conditions.
ï‚· Yesterday afternoons USDA Hogs and Pigs report showed continued soaring numbers, with all hogs and pigs as of March 1 of 77.6 million head up 4.0% from last year vs average market expectations of +3.4%. Dec 1 was also revised up to +4.8% from +3.0% originally reported.
ï‚· Truck shipments of agricultural goods in Brazil on Monday and Tuesday this week, the first days of various lockdowns being in place in parts of the country, declined 12% from levels a week early prior to the lockdowns. Specifics were not provided, but it was mentioned strong grain shipments helped offset other ag product-related declines.
 The USDA’s Farm Service Agency is loosening rules and increasing flexibility in order to help ensure farmers are able to get loans as needed and service existing loans in the current environment.
 China’s spring grain planting was said to be around 8% complete amid favorable conditions and was ahead of last year’s pace without details being provided.
ï‚· The EPA is considering pushing back the March 31 compliance date for 2019 annual RFS mandates amid the coronavirus situation.
ï‚· The FDA is being asked to ease rules or come up with alternative solutions to allow ethanol plants to supply alcohol/ethanol for the use of hand sanitizer production. Currently, alcohol produced by ethanol plants does not meet requirements for hand sanitizer as it is produced at a foodgrade level, one grade below the required pharmaceutical level, and also does not include a denaturant, which is a critical requirement by the FDA to make it undrinkable to prevent poisonings.
ï‚· Taiwan bought 99k tonnes of U.S. wheat of various grades, with half for 2019/20 shipment periods and half for 2020/21.
 French soft wheat conditions were unchanged last week at 63% good/excellent and remain well below last year’s crop at this time of 85% g/e. Spring barley planting advanced strongly with a break in the wet conditions, jumping to 72% complete from 40% a week prior, but remaining well behind last year’s very fast 97%. Nonetheless, planting gained to within 4 days of average.
ï‚· Turkey is believed to have bought around 175k tonnes of largely Black Sea 13.5% protein milling wheat for April shipment periods at prices ranging from $237-$255.90/tonne c&f.