-China raises soybean import/demand ideas
-USDA reports soybean/corn sales to unknown
-Argentine farmer selling very strong amid export tax uncertainty
-Russian wheat export ideas modestly above USDA
-Ukraine corn crop ideas bumped lower
-Forecasts increase Argentine rain ideas
-USDA reports today at 11:00 AM CT
USDA’s monthly Crop Production and WASDE supply/demand balance sheet reports will be released on today at 11:00 AM CT. Our pre-report commentary/analysis can be found on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/37918. A summary of the average trade estimate is on the following page.
Brazilian crushing industry association, ABIOVE, sees the coming Brazilian soybean crop at 122.8 MMT, up from last year’s 117.8 MMT and in line with the USDA’s latest estimate of 123.0 MMT (USDA last year crop estimate 117.0 MMT). ABIOVE looks for next year’s Brazilian soybean exports to rise to 75.0 MMT vs this year’s 72.0 MMT (USDA 77.8 MMT next year/69.0 MMT this year), with new crop crush estimated at 44.0 MMT vs 42.9 MMT this year (USDA 43.9 MMT new crop/43.0 MMT old crop).
In their monthly balance sheet revisions, China raised their 2019/20 soybean import estimate to 86.2 MMT from 84.0 MMT previously and would be up from 82.6 MMT in 2018/19 (94.1 MMT in 2017/18). USDA is currently estimating their coming year’s soybean imports at 85.0 MMT vs 83.0 MMT this year. Total soybean consumption for 2019/20 was raised to 104.9 MMT (USDA 102.7 MMT) from 102.9 MMT previously and up slightly from 102.9 MMT in 2018/19 (107.1 MMT 2017/18), with soybean production expected to continue ticking higher to 17.2 MMT from 16.0 MMT last year (15.3 MMT 17/18). China does not publish official ending stocks estimates/data, but sees 2019/20 soybean stocks declining by 1.6 MMT from 2018/19 vs previous expectations for a 1.8 MMT decline, while 2018/19 stocks saw a 4.4 MMT year-over-year drop. China completely left their 2019/20 corn balance sheet ideas unchanged from last month with imports at 3.0 MMT (4.5 MMT 18/19), total consumption at 280.8 MMT (274.8 MMT 18/19) and stocks expected to decline 20.8 MMT from 18/19 following the 13.0 MMT stocks decline in 18/19. USDA’s latest estimates reflected total corn consumption in 19/20 at 277.0 MMT (273.0 MMT last year), imports at 7.0 MMT, and ending stocks expected to decline 16.0 MMT.
USDA reported the sale of 270k tonnes of soybeans to unknown for 2019/20 this morning in what is viewed as likely Chinese buying ahead of today’s USDA reports. Corn sales of 217k tonnes to unknown were reported this morning, as well.
Preliminary trade data showed Chinese soybean imports in October were 6.18 MMT, down from 8.20 MMT in September and modestly below last year’s Oct imports of 6.92 MMT. 2019 calendar year to date soybean imports of 70.8 MMT compare to 77.0 MMT last year.
The considerable uncertainty over future changes to Argentina’s grain/oilseed export tax structure with the pending political regime change following last month’s election has prompted farmers to aggressively extend new crop sales fearing higher taxes will ultimately push crop prices lower. Farmers have sold an estimated 12.4 MMT of corn so far vs just 4.6 MMT at this time last year, while estimated soybean sales of 7.2 MMT are considerably above last year’s 2.9 MMT at this time too. The corn crop is currently 38% planted according to the Ag Ministry vs 52% last year (41% average), while soybean planting is just getting underway. USDA is currently estimating their coming corn crop at 50.0 MMT (51.0 MMT last year) and soybeans at 53.0 MMT (55.3 MMT last year).
Russia’s Ag Ministry confirmed their expectations for 2019/20 wheat exports at 36.0 MMT, which is modestly above USDA’s latest 34.0 MMT estimate (35.4 MMT last year USDA).
Ukrainian ag consultant ProAgro lowered their estimate of the country’s corn crop to 35.7 MMT from 37.4 MMT last month and currently sees 2019/20 corn exports at 30.2 MMT vs last year’s 31.3 MMT. The USDA is currently estimating Ukraine’s corn crop at 36.0 MMT (35.8 MMT last year) and exports at 30.0 MMT.
French soft wheat planting is 67% complete, up from 54% last week and compares to 85% last year.
Chinese total pork/product imports in 2020 could be as high as 4.6 MMT according to Rabobank vs this year’s estimated 3.1-3.3 MMT and 2.1 MMT in 2018. Pork meat imports, specifically, are seen at 2.3-2.6 MMT in 2020, with offal import accounting for 1.5-2.0 MMT of the estimated 4.6 MMT total. They see China’s pork production declining 25% in 2019 to 40.5 MMT, with another 10-15% decline expected in 2020.
Weather Changes have the GFS bringing rains of .50-1.5” to most of the Argentine growing regions by around Tuesday of next week. The GFS still indicates conditions to be largely dry in most of the Argentine growing regions in the next 5 days, with some rains of .30-1” falling in Buenos Aries. Rains of .50- 1.5”+ will fall across the majority of the Brazilian growing regions in the next 5 days. Some 2”+ totals will be possible in these areas, with no strong bias to the heavier totals outlay. The 6-10 day period still sees rains of 1-2” to fall in most of the Brazilian growing regions, with rains of .25-.75”+ to fall in most of Argentina, except Buenos Aries, which looks to be mainly dry. Most of the U.S. corn belt looks to be largely free from precip today and tomorrow. The next clipper looks to arrive late tomorrow night and finish up Monday. It still looks to bring a general 1-4” of snow to areas north of I-80, with rains of generally less than .30”. Yet another clipper is seen for the second half of next week and looks to bring some light snows to MN, WI and MI. The rest of the region looks to be mainly dry for most of next week. Temps will run below average across the region through most of the next 10 days, including some very cold temps by Sunday and early next week.