-Trade ideas for today’s Oilseed Crushings report
-Attache lowers Brazil soybean crop in line with current trade ideas
-Argentine soybean crop estimate maintained – crop in mostly good condition
-USDA Ag Outlook conference balance sheets released this morning
-Attache lowers Brazil soybean crop in line with current trade ideas
-Argentine soybean crop estimate maintained – crop in mostly good condition
-USDA Ag Outlook conference balance sheets released this morning
Please see our Market Insight post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/35038 for today’s USDA Ag Outlook conference balance sheets. Our post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/35042 discusses the historical track record of the USDA’s February ending stocks, acreage, yield and price forecasts compared to actuals.
 USDA will release the Oilseeds Crushings report this afternoon as they catch up to putting out December data. Their report on March 1 will include January data. The average estimate of US-wide December soybean crush is 182.5 million bushels (181.8-183.6 million range of ideas), which would be up 3.5% from last year’s 176.3 million bushels and reflect total crush 6.3% larger than that of NOPA members only in the month 171.8 million. In the first three months of 2018/19, US total crush has ranged from 5.3-6.7% above last year (6.1% average), so the average estimate appears to be keying off of that situation. The average estimate of end December U.S. soybean oil stocks is 1.970 billion pounds (1.915-2.035 billion range) vs 1.900 billion in November and 1.951 billion pounds last year. Stocks at that level would be 31.5% above NOPA member stocks, while Nov stocks were 28.0% larger than NOPA and Oct 36.3% larger. We would note the wire service poll only included three estimates, though.
 The USDA ag attaché in Brazil sees their soybean crop at 115.5 MMT vs USDA’s last official estimate of 117.0 MMT and last year’s 120.3 MMT crop (USDA at 120.8). The attaché’s new crop soybean export estimate is the same as USDA’s at 70.0 MMT (84.0 MMT last year), with crush at 43.0 MMT vs USDA’s 42.7 MMT and last year’s 42.0 MMT (USDA 43.4 MMT).
 The USDA ag attaché in China put this year’s (2018/19) corn crop at 256.0 MMT vs USDA’s 257.3 MMT and last year’s 259.1 MMT, and concurs with USDA import estimate of 5.0 MMT vs 3.5 MMT last year. Feed demand this year is estimated at 194.0 MMT vs USDA at 195.0 MMT (187.0 MMT last year), while ending stocks were estimated by the attaché at 204.5 MMT vs USDA’s 207.8 MMT and last year’s 222.5 MMT. The attaché’s view of the Chinese wheat balance sheet is identical to USDA’s official estimates.
ï‚· The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said recently improved weather has helped stabilize crop expectations, maintaining their 53.0 MMT estimate, with an estimated 87% of the crop being in favorable condition.
 Argentina slightly raised their estimate of this year’s wheat crop to 19.5 MMT from 19.2 MMT previously. USDA was last at 19.2 MMT, with last year’s crop at 18.5 MMT.
 USDA’s Cattle on Feed report will be out this afternoon.
 Please see our post on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/35044 for more information on today’s USDA Export Sales report.
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